IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bco/ncafaa/v4y2020p41-57.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Budget Revenue Forecasts, Errors and Impact on the Indebtedness of the Municipalities of Maranhão

Author

Listed:
  • Paulo Cesar Pereira de Assuncao

    (Fucape Business School, Brazil)

  • João Eudes Bezerra Filho

    (Assistant Professor at FUCAPE Business School, Brazil)

Abstract

This study aimed to identify the factors that lead to the indebtedness of the municipalities of Maranhão. The study covers the years 2014-2016. Economic methods with panel data and socioeconomic variables were used: municipal GDP per capita, FIRJAN tax management index (IFGF), and level of education of the public manager. In the results, it was possible to observe that the budget revenue forecast error positively affects the 1% level of debt significance in the year, which means implications for one unit of Real (BRL) of budget revenue, incorrectly predicted in the LOAs of the municipalities Maranhão, leads to an increase between BRL 0.49 and BRL 0.62, in the debt of the relevant financial year. As variables such as GDP per capita, the IFGF and the dummies and the level of education were not statistically significant to explain the increase in debt, allowing to deduce the forecast error (planning) of budget revenue by itself, it is an important determinant that contributes, with high statistical significance, which impacts on the increase of the indebtedness of the municipalities of Maranhão.

Suggested Citation

  • Paulo Cesar Pereira de Assuncao & João Eudes Bezerra Filho, 2020. "Budget Revenue Forecasts, Errors and Impact on the Indebtedness of the Municipalities of Maranhão," New Challenges in Accounting and Finance, EUROKD, vol. 4, pages 41-57.
    • Handle: RePEc:bco:ncafaa::v:4:y:2020:p:41-57
    DOI: 10.32038/NCAF.2020.04.04
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://api.eurokd.com/Uploads/Article/113/NCAF.2020.04.04.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32038/NCAF.2020.04.04?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dea Guerra Fioravante & Maurício Mota Saboya Pinheiro & Roberta da Silva Vieira & José Carlos dos Santos, 2006. "Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal e Finanças Públicas Municipais: impactos sobre despesas com pessoal e endividamento," Discussion Papers 1223, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    2. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    3. Vasconcelos de Deus, Joseph David Barroso & de Mendonça, Helder Ferreira, 2017. "Fiscal forecasting performance in an emerging economy: An empirical assessment of Brazil," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 408-419.
    4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2001. "Applications of Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 87-100, Fall.
    5. Eric M. Engen & R. Glenn Hubbard, 2005. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 83-160, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. R. Glenn Hubbard & Eric M. Engen, 2004. "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates," AEI Economics Working Papers 50018, American Enterprise Institute.
    7. Thanh Dat Nguyen & Sandy Suardi & Chew Lian Chua, 2017. "The Behavior Of U.S. Public Debt And Deficits During The Global Financial Crisis," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 201-215, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternatives," IMK Studies 66-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Mindaugas Butkus & Diana Cibulskiene & Lina Garsviene & Janina Seputiene, 2021. "The Heterogeneous Public Debt–Growth Relationship: The Role of the Expenditure Multiplier," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Afonso, António, 2007. "An avenue for expansionary fiscal contractions," MPRA Paper 4593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Zijun Wang & Andrew J. Rettenmaier, 2008. "Deficits, Explicit Debt, Implicit Debt, and Interest Rates: Some Empirical Evidence," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 75(1), pages 208-222, July.
    5. BOUNADER, Lahcen, 2016. "Is there a crowding-out effect in the Moroccan context ? Evidence from structural VAR Analysis," MPRA Paper 69275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. L. Marattin & P. Paesani & S. Salotti, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers wp740, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Ardagna Silvia & Caselli Francesco & Lane Timothy, 2007. "Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-35, August.
    8. Weber, Michael & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2021. "Fiscal Policy And Households’ Inflation Expectations: Evidence From A Randomized Control Trial," CEPR Discussion Papers 15821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Challe, Edouard & Le Grand, François & Ragot, Xavier, 2013. "Incomplete markets, liquidation risk, and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2483-2519.
    10. Huang, Tao & Wu, Fei & Yu, Jing & Zhang, Bohui, 2015. "International political risk and government bond pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 393-405.
    11. Andrej Sokol & Michael Kumhof & Marco Pinchetti & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2023. "CBDC policies in open economies," BIS Working Papers 1086, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Sanusi K A & Meyer D F, 2018. "An Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Changes in Government Bonds, Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics in South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 10(4), pages 165-173.
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Charles Engel & John H. Rogers, 2006. "The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
    15. Rieth, Malte, 2014. "Myopic governments and welfare-enhancing debt limits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 250-265.
    16. Roman Horvath & Lorant Kaszab & Ales Marsal, 2022. "Fiscal Policy And the Nominal Term Premium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(2-3), pages 663-683, March.
    17. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    18. Kumhof, Michael & Laxton, Douglas & Leigh, Daniel, 2014. "To starve or not to starve the beast?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 1-23.
    19. Ağca, Şenay & Celasun, Oya, 2012. "Sovereign debt and corporate borrowing costs in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 198-208.
    20. Marcelo Bianconi & Walter H. Fisher, 2014. "Intertemporal Budget Policies and Macroeconomic Adjustment in Indebted Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 116-130, February.
    21. William Milberg, 2007. "Is the Sky Falling?:," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 91-108.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bco:ncafaa::v:4:y:2020:p:41-57. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sara Gunen (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.