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Electricity Trade in Southeast Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria and Its Neighboring Interconnected Markets

Author

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  • Dimitar Zlatinov
  • Nedko Kosev
  • Sonia Georgieva

Abstract

This study examines cross-border electricity trade in a subregional Southeast European setting centred on Bulgaria and its directly interconnected neighbouring countries: Romania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Greece, and Turkiye. A gravity-inspired panel model is applied to annual data for 1990–2022 to identify long-run and persistent relationships in regional electricity trade within a comparable long-term panel. The results indicate that a 1% increase in electricity production is associated with an increase of 0.04069 GWh in net electricity exports, while a 1% increase in final electricity consumption is associated with a decrease of 0.03852 GWh in net electricity exports. Within the estimated specification, regulation and EU membership are not statistically significant. The findings are discussed in the broader context of regional market restructuring, EU energy policy, and geopolitical developments affecting electricity trade in Southeast Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Dimitar Zlatinov & Nedko Kosev & Sonia Georgieva, 2026. "Electricity Trade in Southeast Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria and Its Neighboring Interconnected Markets," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 131-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2026:i:5:p:131-151
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    File URL: http://archive.econ-studies.iki.bas.bg/2026/2026_05/2026_05_07.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nuno Carlos Leitão, 2024. "Gravity Model and International Trade: A Survey of the Literature," Administrative Sciences, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
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    3. André Quites Ordovás Santos & Adriel Rodrigues da Silva & Jorge Javier Gimenez Ledesma & Adriano Batista de Almeida & Marco Roberto Cavallari & Oswaldo Hideo Ando Junior, 2021. "Electricity Market in Brazil: A Critical Review on the Ongoing Reform," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.
    4. Vatansever, Adnan & Goldthau, Andreas C., 2025. "The political economy of breaking European dependence on Russian gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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