IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jrpoli/v109y2025ics0301420725002387.html

The political economy of breaking European dependence on Russian gas

Author

Listed:
  • Vatansever, Adnan
  • Goldthau, Andreas C.

Abstract

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a landmark moment for Russian gas in Europe. Having built ties for five decades, and having become the continent's main source of supply, Russia's exports of gas to Europe in 2024 were back to the levels witnessed in the mid-1970s. Now, Russia is downgraded to a marginal supplier. Europe has enacted rapid and comprehensive policies breaking with the past. And yet the question of the future of Russian gas looms on the horizon of European energy and climate policies. The present paper proposes a political economy heuristic based on sunk costs, incumbency, and policy ideology to explain Europe's past reliance on Russian gas and its varied responses to its displacement since the Ukraine war. By extension, the heuristic allows judging whether Russian gas may see a return to Europe, should Moscow's war end and a window of opportunity open up for revisiting external supply options. We empirically test this heuristic by assessing why Europe's dependence on Russian gas increased, and the extent to which the policy pathway of select European countries falls in line with assumptions derived from behavioralist approaches, material interests and ideational factors. Here, the paper provides an assessment, based on the heuristic, of the three divergent responses that have emerged since the start of the war in Ukraine: maintain Russian gas imports, replace Russian gas with other sources of gas, and replace Russian gas with renewable energy. In doing so, the paper provides a proof of concept for judging the future of Russian gas in the European import balance and thus fills an important gap in the pertinent academic literature by examining key political economy factors that shape EU-Russian energy relations going forward.

Suggested Citation

  • Vatansever, Adnan & Goldthau, Andreas C., 2025. "The political economy of breaking European dependence on Russian gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:109:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725002387
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105696
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301420725002387
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105696?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Goldthau, 2012. "From the State to the Market and Back: Policy Implications of Changing Energy Paradigms," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 3(2), pages 198-210, May.
    2. Andreas Goldthau & Nick Sitter, 2022. "Whither the Liberal European Union Energy Model? The Public Policy Consequences of Russia’s Weaponization of Energy," EconPol Forum, CESifo, vol. 23(06), pages 4-7, November.
    3. Roger Fouquet, 2016. "Path dependence in energy systems and economic development," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 1(8), pages 1-5, August.
    4. Dominique Finon & Catherine Locatelli, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence. Can market forces balance out geopolitics?," Post-Print halshs-00129618, HAL.
    5. Martínez-García, Miguel Á. & Ramos-Carvajal, Carmen & Cámara, Ángeles, 2023. "Consequences of the energy measures derived from the war in Ukraine on the level of prices of EU countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    6. Szul Roman, 2011. "Geopolitics of Natural Gas Supply in Europe - Poland Between the EU and Russia," European Spatial Research and Policy, Sciendo, vol. 18(2), pages 47-67, November.
    7. Hughes, Llewelyn & Meckling, Jonas, 2017. "The politics of renewable energy trade: The US-China solar dispute," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 256-262.
    8. Jessica Green & Jennifer Hadden & Thomas Hale & Paasha Mahdavi, 2022. "Transition, hedge, or resist? Understanding political and economic behavior toward decarbonization in the oil and gas industry," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(6), pages 2036-2063, November.
    9. Min, Shi & Wang, Xiaobing & Liu, Min & Jikun, Huang, "undated". "The Asymmetric Response of Farmers to the Expected Change of Rubber Price: the Roles of Sunk Cost and Path Dependency," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274122, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Emily Cox & Phil Johnstone & Andy Stirlng, 2016. "Understanding the Intensity of UK Policy Commitments to Nuclear Power," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-16, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    11. Rawi Abdelal, 2013. "The profits of power: Commerce and realpolitik in Eurasia," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 421-456, June.
    12. Downie, Christian, 2017. "Business actors, political resistance, and strategies for policymakers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 583-592.
    13. Rubino, Alessandro, 2021. "The political economy of Euro - Mediterranean cooperation in the gas market: The role of domestic stakeholders and the European Commission," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. De Bondt, Werner F. M. & Makhija, Anil K., 1988. "Throwing good money after bad? : Nuclear power plant investment decisions and the relevance of sunk costs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 173-199, September.
    15. Giorel Curran, 2020. "Divestment, energy incumbency and the global political economy of energy transition: the case of Adani’s Carmichael mine in Australia," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(8), pages 949-962, September.
    16. Andreas C. Goldthau & Richard Youngs, 2023. "The EU Energy Crisis and a New Geopolitics of Climate Transition," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(S1), pages 115-124, September.
    17. Thomas Rixen & Lora Anne Viola, 2015. "Putting path dependence in its place: toward a Taxonomy of institutional change," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 27(2), pages 301-323, April.
    18. Unruh, Gregory C., 2000. "Understanding carbon lock-in," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(12), pages 817-830, October.
    19. Goldthau, Andreas & Sitter, Nick, 2015. "A Liberal Actor in a Realist World: The European Union Regulatory State and the Global Political Economy of Energy," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198719595.
    20. Arkes, Hal R. & Blumer, Catherine, 1985. "The psychology of sunk cost," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 124-140, February.
    21. Min, Shi & Wang, Xiaobing & Liu, Min & Huang, Jikun, 2018. "The asymmetric response of farmers to an expected change in the price of rubber: The roles of sunk costs and path dependency," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 585-594.
    22. Miriello, Caterina & Polo, Michele, 2015. "The development of gas hubs in Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 177-190.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dimitar Zlatinov & Nedko Kosev & Sonia Georgieva, 2026. "Electricity Trade in Southeast Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria and Its Neighboring Interconnected Markets," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 5, pages 131-151.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Goldthau & Nick Sitter, 2021. "Horses for courses. The roles of IPE and Global Public Policy in global energy research [The profits of power: Commerce and realpolitik in Eurasia]," Policy and Society, Darryl S. Jarvis and M. Ramesh, vol. 40(4), pages 467-483.
    2. Jin, Shaoze & Min, Shi & Huang, Jikun & Waibel, Hermann, 2021. "Falling price induced diversification strategies and rural inequality: Evidence of smallholder rubber farmers," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Min, Shi & Yang, Minda & Jia, Qianying & Waibel, Hermann, 2026. "The impact of sunk costs and path dependencies on nonfarm employment of smallholder rubber farmers: Evidence from Southwest China," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    4. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Anantharama, Nandini & Kallies, Anne, 2021. "Electricity market transitions in Australia: Evidence using model-based clustering," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Kneebone, James & McWilliams, Ben & Moor, Olivia & Nuñez-Jimenez, Alejandro, 2026. "A new European energy policy paradigm revealed by changes in hydrogen strategies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    6. Steffen, Bjarne & Karplus, Valerie & Schmidt, Tobias S., 2022. "State ownership and technology adoption: The case of electric utilities and renewable energy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(6).
    7. Jin, Wei & Zhang, ZhongXiang, "undated". "Capital Accumulation, GreeParadox, and Stranded Assets: An Endogenous Growth Perspective," ETA: Economic Theory and Applications 281286, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    8. Roman Stutzer & Adrian Rinscheid & Thiago D. Oliveira & Pedro Mendes Loureiro & Aya Kachi & Mert Duygan, 2021. "Black coal, thin ice: the discursive legitimisation of Australian coal in the age of climate change," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. Ningan Yang & Yawen Ding & Shi Min & Junfei Bai, 2022. "Does rubber expansion hinder the migration of rural labor? Evidence from southwest China?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 1108-1131, May.
    10. David Johnstone, 2002. "Behavioral and Prescriptive Explanations of a Reverse Sunk Cost Effect," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 209-242, November.
    11. Kirsi Kotilainen & Pami Aalto & Jussi Valta & Antti Rautiainen & Matti Kojo & Benjamin K. Sovacool, 2019. "From path dependence to policy mixes for Nordic electric mobility: Lessons for accelerating future transport transitions," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 52(4), pages 573-600, December.
    12. Millot, Ariane & Maïzi, Nadia, 2021. "From open-loop energy revolutions to closed-loop transition: What drives carbon neutrality?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    13. Marcin Rzeszutek & Adam Szyszka & Monika Czerwonka, 2015. "Investors’ Expertise, Personality Traits and Susceptibility to Behavioral Biases in the Decision Making Process," Contemporary Economics, Vizja University, vol. 9(3), September.
    14. Zhiyun Zhou & Haoling Liao & Hua Li, 2023. "The Symbiotic Mechanism of the Influence of Productive and Transactional Agricultural Social Services on the Use of Soil Testing and Formula Fertilization Technology by Tea Farmers," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-26, August.
    15. Peter Newell & Angela Carter, 2024. "Understanding supply-side climate policies: towards an interdisciplinary framework," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 7-26, March.
    16. Stephen L. Bi & Nico Bauer & Jessica Jewell, 2023. "Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 130-139, February.
    17. Nicolas Graham & David Chen & Jean Philippe Sapinski & William K. Carroll, 2026. "Canada’s climate lobby: networks of fossil dominance and social-ecological advocacy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 179(5), pages 1-22, May.
    18. Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer, 2022. "The Politics of Market Change towards Sustainability: Revisiting Germany’s Policy Support Framework for Renewables," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, May.
    19. Jue Wang & Haiwei Jiang & Yuan He, 2023. "Determinants of Smallholder Farmers’ Income-Generating Activities in Rubber Monoculture Dominated Region Based on Sustainable Livelihood Framework," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, January.
    20. Cappelli, Federica & Carnazza, Giovanni, 2025. "Close ties: How trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:109:y:2025:i:c:s0301420725002387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30467 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.