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PREDICTING NPLs FOR CROATIA WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES

Author

Listed:
  • Mile Bosnjak

    (University of Zagreb)

  • Jurica Vukas

    (Croatian National Bank)

  • Ivan Sverko

    (Eurizon Asset Management Croatia d.o.o.)

Abstract

This paper aims to examine some of the macroeconomic drivers of nonperforming loans (NPL) in Croatia. Unemployment rate, industrial production index, construction works volume and the number of tourist arrivals were evaluated as the drivers on a quarterly data sample from 2008q4 to 2020q4. Following quantile regression approach, unemployment rates and construction works volume appeared as significant drivers of NPL in Croatia. Furthermore, empirical findings from this paper suggest asymmetric effects on NPL from its drivers. While decrease in construction works volume and increase in unemployment rates were found to correspond with increase in NPL, an increase in construction works volume and decrease in unemployment rates were not correlated with decrease in NPL. Consequently, the paper brings implications for credit institutions in Croatia within the context of COVID-19 pandemic crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Mile Bosnjak & Jurica Vukas & Ivan Sverko, 2021. "PREDICTING NPLs FOR CROATIA WITH MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 30(2), pages 571-586, december.
    • Handle: RePEc:avo:emipdu:v:30:y:2021:i:2:p:571-586
    DOI: 10.17818/EMIP/2021/2.13
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    2. Mile Bošnjak & Vlatka Bilas & Gordana Kordić, 2020. "Determinants Of Foreign Exchange Reserves In Serbia And North Macedonia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 65(226), pages 103-120, July – Se.
    3. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel & Darmouni, Olivier & Luck, Stephan & Plosser, Matthew, 2022. "Bank liquidity provision across the firm size distribution," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 908-932.
    4. Delova Jolevska, Evica & Andovski, Ilija, 2015. "Non- Performing Loans In The Banking Systems Of Serbia, Croatia And Macedonia: Comparative Analysis," Ekonomika, Journal for Economic Theory and Practice and Social Issues, Society of Economists Ekonomika, Nis, Serbia, vol. 61(01), pages 1-16, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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