IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/arp/tjssrr/2018p962-969.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Bulls and Bears and Bankruptcy- An Early Warning of Distress

Author

Listed:
  • Eka Bertuah

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, Esa Unggul University, Jakarta, Indonesia)

  • Erlane K. Ghani*

    (Faculty of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malayasia)

Abstract

This study examines possible indicators of financial distress: financial ratio; financial decision; the preferences of investors; and economic macro conditions. Based on these indicators, the model of financial distress was constructed using capital structure theory. The population in this study is manufacturing companies listed on The Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2003 to 2016. This study relies on the composite market index to detect whether the market is bullish or bearish using regression analysis time series. Then, the factor analysis and logistic regression are used. Models which predict financial distress in bearish markets are more accurate than in a bullish market. Investors, therefore, are more vulnerable ina bullish market. Equity financing will reduce the probability of financial distress in both bullish and bearish markets. This supports the pecking order theory in capital structure - when the companies need funding, an early funding alternative is to retain earnings.

Suggested Citation

  • Eka Bertuah & Erlane K. Ghani*, 2018. "Bulls and Bears and Bankruptcy- An Early Warning of Distress," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 962-969:5.
    • Handle: RePEc:arp:tjssrr:2018:p:962-969
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/pdf-files/spi5.1-962-969.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.arpgweb.com/journal/7/special_issue/12-2018/5/4
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wruck, Karen Hopper, 1990. "Financial distress, reorganization, and organizational efficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 419-444, October.
    2. Michael Faulkender & Rong Wang, 2006. "Corporate Financial Policy and the Value of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 1957-1990, August.
    3. Ball, R & Foster, G, 1982. "Corporate Financial-Reporting - A Methodological Review Of Empirical-Research - Reply," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20, pages 245-248.
    4. Kahya, Emel & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 1999. "Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 323-345, December.
    5. Richard Whitaker, 1999. "The early stages of financial distress," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 23(2), pages 123-132, June.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    7. Myers, Stewart C., 1984. "Capital structure puzzle," Working papers 1548-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    8. Ball, R & Foster, G, 1982. "Corporate Financial-Reporting - A Methodological Review Of Empirical-Research," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20, pages 161-234.
    9. Michael R. Roberts & Amir Sufi, 2009. "Control Rights and Capital Structure: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(4), pages 1657-1695, August.
    10. Sunti Tirapat & Aekkachai Nittayagasetwat, 1999. "An Investigation of Thai Listed Firms' Financial Distress Using Macro and Micro Variables," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 103-125, June.
    11. Lubom??r L??zal, 2002. "Determinants of Financial Distress: What Drives Bankruptcy in a Transition Economy? The Czech Republic Case," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 451, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    12. Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
    13. Myers, Stewart C, 1984. "The Capital Structure Puzzle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(3), pages 575-592, July.
    14. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    15. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Capital Structure Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 1393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:arp:tjssrr:2019:p:95-102 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Cristina Martínez-Sola & Pedro J. García-Teruel & Pedro Martínez-Solano, 2018. "Cash holdings in SMEs: speed of adjustment, growth and financing," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 823-842, December.
    3. Jayne M. Godfrey, 1994. "Foreign Currency Accounting Policy: The Impact of Asset Specificity," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(2), pages 643-671, March.
    4. Tang, Tony T., 2009. "Information asymmetry and firms' credit market access: Evidence from Moody's credit rating format refinement," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 325-351, August.
    5. Lorenzo Gai & Maria Cristina Arcuri & Federica Ielasi, 2023. "How does government-backed finance affect SMEs’ crisis predictors?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 1205-1229, October.
    6. Andriakopoulos, Konstantinos & Kounetas, Konstantinos, 2019. "The impact of large lending on bank efficiency in U.S.A," MPRA Paper 96036, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Tiziana La Rocca & Maurizio La Rocca & Francesco Fasano & Alfio Cariola, 2023. "Does a country's environmental policy affect the value of small and medium sized enterprises liquidity in the energy sector?," Corporate Social Responsibility and Environmental Management, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(1), pages 277-290, January.
    8. Xin Qu & Majella Percy & Fang Hu & Jenny Stewart, 2022. "Can CEO equity‐based compensation limit investment‐related agency problems?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2579-2614, June.
    9. Diana Hechavarría & Charles Matthews & Paul Reynolds, 2016. "Does start-up financing influence start-up speed? Evidence from the panel study of entrepreneurial dynamics," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 137-167, January.
    10. Keming Li, 2021. "The effect of option trading," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-32, December.
    11. John S. Strong & John R. Meyer, 1990. "Sustaining Investment, Discretionary Investment, and Valuation: A Residual Funds Study of the Paper Industry," NBER Chapters, in: Asymmetric Information, Corporate Finance, and Investment, pages 127-148, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ana Venâncio & João Jorge, 2022. "The role of accelerator programmes on the capital structure of start-ups," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1143-1167, October.
    13. Silvia Magri, 2014. "Does issuing equity help R&D activity? Evidence from unlisted Italian high-tech manufacturing firms," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(8), pages 825-854, November.
    14. Valérie Revest & Alessandro Sapio, 2012. "Financing technology-based small firms in Europe: what do we know?," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 179-205, July.
    15. Cieply Sylvie, 2001. "The Radical Change of French Firms’ Financial Characteristics. Macroeconomic Consequences and Lessons for Political Economics / Die französische Finanzrevolution. Die Folgen für die Finanzstruktur der," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 221(5-6), pages 556-576, October.
    16. Monda, Barbara & Giorgino, Marco & Modolin, Ileana, 2013. "Rationales for Corporate Risk Management - A Critical Literature Review," MPRA Paper 45420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Francesco Aiello & Graziella Bonanno & Stefania P. S. Rossi, 2020. "How firms finance innovation. Further empirics from European SMEs," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(4), pages 689-714, November.
    18. Poitevin, Michel, 1989. "Information et marchés financiers : une revue de littérature," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 65(4), pages 555-589, décembre.
    19. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    20. Konstantinos Tzioumis & Leora F. Klapper, 2012. "Taxation and Capital Structure: Evidence from a Transition Economy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(2), pages 165-190, June.
    21. Lewe, Stefan, 2003. "Wachstumseffiziente Unternehmensbesteuerung," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 20042, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arp:tjssrr:2018:p:962-969. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Managing Editor (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arpgweb.com/?ic=journal&journal=7&info=aims .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.