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Markups In The Branches Of The Polish Food Sector As Business Cycle Predictors

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  • Kufel-Gajda, Justyna

Abstract

The main objective of the paper was to check if and which monopolistic markups of 29 Polish food sector branches can be regarded as potential predictors of business cycle changes. Markups were measured based on a non-overhead labour input margin, whereas the business cycle was considered on the three levels of branch, sector and the whole economy, with following indicators: value of production for the first two, and GDP for the macro cycle. Research methods were panel regressions and cross-correlations. In the analysed period 2000-2013 markups were countercyclical regarding macro cycle and procyclical regarding sectorial and branch cycles. Changes in market structures of 10 Polish food sector branches could be used as predictors for the macro business cycle, and of 6 – for the sectorial business cycle.

Suggested Citation

  • Kufel-Gajda, Justyna, 2017. "Markups In The Branches Of The Polish Food Sector As Business Cycle Predictors," Roczniki (Annals), Polish Association of Agricultural Economists and Agribusiness - Stowarzyszenie Ekonomistow Rolnictwa e Agrobiznesu (SERiA), vol. 2016(4), May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:paaero:257552
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.257552
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    1. Kufel, Justyna, 2014. "Marże w przemyśle spożywczym krajów Unii Europejskiej a wahania koniunktury gospodarczej," Problems of World Agriculture / Problemy Rolnictwa Światowego, Warsaw University of Life Sciences, vol. 14(29), pages 1-10, September.
    2. Finn E. Kydland (ed.), 1995. "Business Cycle Theory," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 565.
    3. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, March.
    4. Justyna Kufel, 2015. "Monopolistic markups in the Polish food sector," Working Papers 69/2015, Institute of Economic Research, revised Apr 2015.
    5. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    6. Christopher J. Nekarda & Valerie A. Ramey, 2020. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Price‐Cost Markup," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 319-353, December.
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