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The Impact Of International Oil Price Increase On The Economy Of Free State Province Of South Africa


  • Bahta, Yonas Tesfamariam


This article researches quantitatively the impact of an increase in the international oil price on economy of the Free State provincial economy using a Computable General Equilibrium model. The result of an increase international oil price shows that, the percentage in labour demand of transport, other services, agriculture, and manufacturing sector decrease. The GDP of the overall economy decrease by 0.01%, the highest decrease observed in transport sector followed by other services, agriculture and manufacturing sector. It also reflects that from the household income analysis the lower income households are more affected compared to the rest of household categories.Considering poverty (measured in terms of Equivalent Variation) the results also suggest that the lowest welfare gain observed in poor households. The results suggest that it is inevitable that there will always be some external shocks outside the control of economic policies. Hence it is necessary to strengthen the effectiveness of economic growth by incorporating target available resources and ensuring coherence in policy design.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahta, Yonas Tesfamariam, 1. "The Impact Of International Oil Price Increase On The Economy Of Free State Province Of South Africa," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 2(1).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ijfaec:163708

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Nielsen, Chantal Pohl, 2002. "Social accounting matrices for Vietnam 1996 and 1997," TMD discussion papers 86, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Robinson, Sherman & El-Said, Moataz, 2000. "GAMS code for estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) using cross entropy methods (CE)," TMD discussion papers 64, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Helene Maisonnave & Jugal Mahabir & Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Chitiga, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on Sub-National Government – Lessons from the Free State Province in South Africa," Working Papers 201012, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Sherman Robinson & Andrea Cattaneo & Moataz El-Said, 2001. "Updating and Estimating a Social Accounting Matrix Using Cross Entropy Methods," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 47-64.
    5. Y.T. Bahta & B.J. Willemse & B. Grove, 2014. "The role of agriculture in welfare, income distribution and economic development of the Free State Province of South Africa: A CGE approach," Agrekon, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(1), pages 46-74, March.
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