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The implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for African economies: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia

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  • Yalew, Amsalu Woldie
  • Nechifor, Victor
  • Ferrari, Emanuele

Abstract

The Russian invasion of Ukraine contributed to soaring world market prices of many commodities with severe repercussions for many African countries. This study examines the implications of the 2022 world market price increases for wheat, fuels, and fertilizers for Ethiopia. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, the study shows negative impacts on GDP, wage rates, and households’ consumption in the country. The effects of fertilizer and petroleum price changes are notable and unequal across production sectors. With increasing import prices of inorganic fertilizers, crop growing activities substitute inorganic fertilizers with animal manure reducing the use of manure as cooking fuel. The effects on urban households are more severe than the effects on rural households. Policies supporting biofuels and biogas digesters may dampen the adverse effects stemming from petroleum price surges.

Suggested Citation

  • Yalew, Amsalu Woldie & Nechifor, Victor & Ferrari, Emanuele, 2024. "The implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine for African economies: A CGE analysis for Ethiopia," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 13(3), October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:aieabj:347590
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.347590
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feng, Shenghao & Zhang, Keyu, 2018. "Fuel-factor nesting structures in CGE models of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 274-284.
    2. Carine Meyimdjui & Jean-Louis Combes, 2021. "Food Price Shocks and Household Consumption in Developing Countries: The Role of Fiscal Policy," IMF Working Papers 2021/012, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yalew, Amsalu Woldie, 2026. "Sectoral and macroeconomic implications of reducing implicit power sector subsidies in developing countries: Insights from Ethiopia," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    2. Shahir Adnan & Ferrari Emanuele, 2026. "Distributional and Economy-Wide Impacts of a Carbon Tax in Ethiopia," JRC Working Papers on Economic Analysis of Policies for Africa 2026-03, Joint Research Centre.

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