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The impact of EU policy response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Italian agri-food sector

Author

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  • Bonfiglio, Andrea
  • Coderoni, Silvia
  • Esposti, Roberto

Abstract

This study examines the European Union’s (EU) policy response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, which has affected trade with Russia and Ukraine across various sectors. The research employs a constrained nonlinear programming model, based on a multi-regional input-output table of the Italian economy, to compute and analyse direct and indirect impacts, particularly in the agri-food sector. Alternative policy responses, including deeper EU-Ukraine integration and further trade collapse, are simulated to validate the results. The findings suggest a minor overall impact on the agri-food sector, especially in Southern Italy, unless extreme measures are implemented. The evidence challenges protectionist calls and highlight the need for targeted, data-driven policy interventions to support the most vulnerable areas and enhance long-term resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonfiglio, Andrea & Coderoni, Silvia & Esposti, Roberto, 2026. "The impact of EU policy response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine on the Italian agri-food sector," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 356-378.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:48:y:2026:i:2:p:356-378
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2025.07.005
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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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