Modelling risk in farm planning
In this article a mathematical model is presented to assist management decisions on an integrated crop and livestock farm. Risk is incorporated into the model as the negative deviation of the actual gross income from the expected value of an activity's gross income. The model includes crop production (permitting and optimising a crop rotation system), dairy production and wool sheep production. Relevant data from a farm in the Swartland region of the Western Cape were used to test and validate the model. The results show that the adoption of crop rotation is superior in terms of gross margin to that generated from a mono-crop strategy. Empirical results also indicate that the complex interrelationships involved in a mixed crop-livestock farm operation play a major role in determining optimal farm plans. These complex interrelationships favour the introduction of crop rotation in the crop production activities of the farm under investigation. Solutions of the model with risk indicate that the crop rotation strategy and animal production levels are sensitive to different risk levels, and that the incorporation of risk greatly affects the level of land allocation to crop rotation and animal production level of the farm. Finally, the results suggest that the introduction of crop rotation is of paramount importance in improving the profitability and sustainability of the farm, thus the inclusion of forage crops such as medics into the integrated crop-livestock production is beneficial for sustained profitability.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Visagie, S.E., 2004. "Optimering van wisselboustelsels," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 43(3), September.
- Munford, Alan G., 1989. "A microcomputer system for formulating animal diets which may involve liquid raw materials," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 270-276, August.
- B. Curtis Eaves, 1971. "On Quadratic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 698-711, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:31702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.