IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling risk in farm planning


  • Visagie, S.E.
  • Ghebretsadik, A.H.


In this article a mathematical model is presented to assist management decisions on an integrated crop and livestock farm. Risk is incorporated into the model as the negative deviation of the actual gross income from the expected value of an activity's gross income. The model includes crop production (permitting and optimising a crop rotation system), dairy production and wool sheep production. Relevant data from a farm in the Swartland region of the Western Cape were used to test and validate the model. The results show that the adoption of crop rotation is superior in terms of gross margin to that generated from a mono-crop strategy. Empirical results also indicate that the complex interrelationships involved in a mixed crop-livestock farm operation play a major role in determining optimal farm plans. These complex interrelationships favour the introduction of crop rotation in the crop production activities of the farm under investigation. Solutions of the model with risk indicate that the crop rotation strategy and animal production levels are sensitive to different risk levels, and that the incorporation of risk greatly affects the level of land allocation to crop rotation and animal production level of the farm. Finally, the results suggest that the introduction of crop rotation is of paramount importance in improving the profitability and sustainability of the farm, thus the inclusion of forage crops such as medics into the integrated crop-livestock production is beneficial for sustained profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Visagie, S.E. & Ghebretsadik, A.H., 2005. "Modelling risk in farm planning," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 44(4), December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:31702

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. P. B. R. Hazell, 1971. "A Linear Alternative to Quadratic and Semivariance Programming for Farm Planning under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 53(1), pages 53-62.
    2. Munford, Alan G., 1989. "A microcomputer system for formulating animal diets which may involve liquid raw materials," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 270-276, August.
    3. B. Curtis Eaves, 1971. "On Quadratic Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 698-711, July.
    4. Visagie, S.E., 2004. "Optimering van wisselboustelsels," Agrekon, Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA), vol. 43(3), September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Kamel Elouhichi & Maria Espinosa Goded & Pavel Ciaian & Angel Perni Llorente & Bouda Vosough Ahmadi & Liesbeth Colen & Sergio Gomez Y Paloma, 2018. "The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening," JRC Working Papers JRC108693, Joint Research Centre (Seville site).

    More about this item


    Farm Management; Risk and Uncertainty;


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:agreko:31702. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.