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Uncertainty and monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic in Tunisia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR

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  • Dorra TURKI

    (University of Sfax, Tunisia)

  • Foued Badr GABSI

    (University of Sfax, Tunisia)

Abstract

This paper aims to examine the impact of the uncertainty shock on the Tunisian economy and the effectiveness of monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic. For this purpose, we employ a Bayesian VAR model considering the world uncertainty index (WUI) as a new proxy for uncertainty measure and the short-term interest rate as the main instrument of monetary policy. The results indicate that the Covid-19 uncertainty shock has a negative consequence on economic activity and on aggregate demand in Tunisia. Moreover, we show that conventional monetary policy is ineffective in times of high uncertainty period.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorra TURKI & Foued Badr GABSI, 2023. "Uncertainty and monetary policy during the Covid-19 pandemic in Tunisia: Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 177-188, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:agr:journl:v:1(634):y:2023:i:1(634):p:177-188
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    2. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    3. Désiré Avom & Henri Njangang & Larissa Nawo, 2020. "World Economic Policy Uncertainty and Foreign Direct Investment," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1457-1464.
    4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    5. Stéphane Adjemian & Florian Pelgrin, 2008. "Un regard bayésien sur les modèles dynamiques de la macroéconomie," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(2), pages 127-152.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2020_011 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gozgor, Giray & Demir, Ender & Belas, Jaroslav & Yesilyurt, Serkan, 2019. "Does economic uncertainty affect domestic credits? an empirical investigation," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    8. Gordana Djurovic & Vasilije Djurovic & Martin M. Bojaj, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 in Montenegro: a Bayesian VARX approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-16, December.
    9. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Kima, Richard, 2020. "The global effects of Covid-19-induced uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Emna Trabelsi, 2025. "Monetary Policy Under Global and Spillover Uncertainty Shocks: What Do the Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient VAR, Local Projections, and Vector Error Correction Model Tell Us in Tunisia?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-74, March.

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