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The Big One: A Review of Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response

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  • Edward A. Parson

Abstract

Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response (Oxford University Press, 2004) examines four risks whose worst cases could end advanced human civilization or worse: asteroid impacts, a catastrophic chain reaction initiated in high-energy particle accelerators, global climate change, and bioterrorism. He argues that these all warrant more thought and response than they are receiving, and that they can usefully be assessed using a simple analytic framework based on cost-benefit analysis. This essay reviews knowledge of these risks and critically examines Posner's claims for a consistent analytic approach. While the conclusions that each risk merits more thought and effort appear persuasive, these rely on ad hoc arguments specific to each risk. The general analytic claims do not hold up well, as Posner develops his proposed framework thinly and applies it unevenly. Applying such a framework consistently to catastrophic risks would require engaging some fundamental problems that Posner does not address. The book's major contributions are to identify and describe these risks, highlight the inadequate attention they are receiving, and advance a persuasive argument for their more serious examination.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward A. Parson, 2007. "The Big One: A Review of Richard Posner's Catastrophe: Risk and Response," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(1), pages 147-213, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jeclit:v:45:y:2007:i:1:p:147-213
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/jel.45.1.147
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lomborg,Bjørn, 2001. "The Skeptical Environmentalist," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521010689.
    2. Adrian Kent, 2004. "A Critical Look at Risk Assessments for Global Catastrophes," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(1), pages 157-168, February.
    3. Stephen H Schneider & B. L. Turner & Holly Morehouse Garriga, 1998. "Imaginable surprise in global change science," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 165-185, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & den Elzen, Michel G.J., 2010. "A quantitative minimax regret approach to climate change: Does discounting still matter?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 43-51, November.
    2. Martin L. Weitzman, 2009. "On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 1-19, February.
    3. Andrea Rampa, 2020. "Climate change, catastrophes and Dismal Theorem: a critical review [Klimawandel, Katastrophen und das „Dismal Theorem“: eine kritische Überprüfung]," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 40(2), pages 113-136, October.
    4. Robert S. Pindyck & Neng Wang, 2013. "The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 306-339, November.
    5. Buchholz, Wolfgang & Schymura, Michael, 2012. "Expected utility theory and the tyranny of catastrophic risks," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 234-239.
    6. Steven D Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2020. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(1), pages 1-60.
    7. Steven D. Baker & Burton Hollifield & Emilio Osambela, 2018. "Preventing Controversial Catastrophes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-052, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Lubimov, I.L. (Любимов, И.Л.), 2016. "The Impact of Resource Wealth on Economic Growth: A Review of Foreign Experience and Estimates for Russia [Влияние Ресурсного Богатства На Экономический Рост: Обзор Зарубежного Опыта И Оценки Для Р," Working Papers 2044, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Martin Weitzman, 2007. "Structural Uncertainty and the Value of Statistical Life in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change," NBER Working Papers 13490, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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