IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v17y2025i4p345-90.html

Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment

Author

Listed:
  • Stefania Albanesi

Abstract

Women's labor force participation in the United States rose rapidly until the mid-1990s when it flattened out. I examine the impact of this change in trend on aggregate business cycles with a quantitative model that incorporates gender differences. I show that the rise in women's participation played a substantial role in the Great Moderation and not allowing for gender differences leads to incorrect inference on its causes. The subsequent slowdown in women's participation played a substantial role in jobless recoveries and reduced aggregate hours and output growth in expansions, worsening aggregate economic performance in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefania Albanesi, 2025. "Changing Business Cycles: The Role of Women's Employment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 345-390, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:345-90
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20210138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20210138
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://doi.org/10.3886/E212321V1
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/23928
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/23929
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/mac.20210138?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or

    for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    2. Stefania Albanesi & Aysegul Sahin, 2018. "The Gender Unemployment Gap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 47-67, October.
    3. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    4. Maria J. Prados & Stefania Albanesi, 2011. "Inequality and Household Labor Supply," 2011 Meeting Papers 657, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    6. Stefania Albanesi & Claudia Olivetti, 2016. "Gender Roles and Medical Progress," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 650-695.
    7. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2009. "The Young, the Old, and the Restless: Demographics and Business Cycle Volatility," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 804-826, June.
    8. Galor, Oded & Weil, David N, 1996. "The Gender Gap, Fertility, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(3), pages 374-387, June.
    9. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "Accounting for Growth," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 179-224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    11. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2011. "Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent? A Review of Evidence on the Intensive and Extensive Margins," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(3), pages 471-475, May.
    12. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models—Rejoinder," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 211-219.
    13. Daron Acemoglu & David H. Autor & David Lyle, 2004. "Women, War, and Wages: The Effect of Female Labor Supply on the Wage Structure at Midcentury," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 497-551, June.
    14. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
    15. Claudia Olivetti, 2006. "Changes in Women's Hours of Market Work: The Role of Returns to Experience," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 9(4), pages 557-587, October.
    16. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri & Mehmet Yorukoglu, 2005. "Engines of Liberation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 109-133.
    17. Yongsung Chang & Taeyoung Doh & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Non‐stationary Hours in a DSGE Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1357-1373, September.
    18. Michelle Rendall, 2010. "Brain versus Brawn: The Realization of Women's Comparative Advantage," 2010 Meeting Papers 926, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Claudia Goldin & Lawrence F. Katz, 2002. "The Power of the Pill: Oral Contraceptives and Women's Career and Marriage Decisions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 730-770, August.
    20. Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 2007. "Is there still an added-worker effect?," Staff Reports 310, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Stefania Albanesi & Aysegul Sahin, 2018. "The Gender Unemployment Gap," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 47-67, October.
    22. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    23. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Itay Saporta-Eksten, 2016. "Consumption Inequality and Family Labor Supply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(2), pages 387-435, February.
    24. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2004. "The Response of Hours to a Technology Shock: Evidence Based on Direct Measures of Technology," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 2(2-3), pages 381-395, 04/05.
    25. Sandra E. Black & Alexandra Spitz-Oener, 2010. "Explaining Women's Success: Technological Change and the Skill Content of Women's Work," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 187-194, February.
    26. Sungbae An & Frank Schorfheide, 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of DSGE Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 113-172.
    27. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2003. "What Happens After a Technology Shock?," NBER Working Papers 9819, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    29. Neville Francis & Valerie A. Ramey, 2009. "Measures of per Capita Hours and Their Implications for the Technology-Hours Debate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1071-1097, September.
    30. Steven J. Davis & James A. Kahn, 2008. "Interpreting the Great Moderation: Changes in the Volatility of Economic Activity at the Macro and Micro Levels," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(4), pages 155-180, Fall.
    31. Erica L. Groshen & Simon M. Potter, 2003. "Has structural change contributed to a jobless recovery?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 9(Aug).
    32. Baily, Martin & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "Measurement Issues, the Productivity Slowdown and the Explosion of Computer Power," CEPR Discussion Papers 305, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    33. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. William Nordhaus, 2004. "Retrospective on the 1970s Productivity Slowdown," NBER Working Papers 10950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
    36. Melvin Stephens, 2002. "Worker Displacement and the Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 20(3), pages 504-537, July.
    37. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the business cycle changed?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 9-56.
    38. Lundberg, Shelly, 1985. "The Added Worker Effect," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 11-37, January.
    39. Kathrin Ellieroth, 2019. "Spousal Insurance, Precautionary Labor Supply, and the Business Cycle - A Quantitative Analysis," 2019 Meeting Papers 1134, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guisinger, Amy Y., 2020. "Gender differences in the volatility of work hours and labor demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Arnau Valladares-Esteban, 2025. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    3. Daniel Chiquiar & Aldo Heffner, 2024. "Efectos heterogéneos de la pandemia del COVID-19 sobre el empleo femenino y masculino en México/Heterogeneous effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Mexico’s female and male employment," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 39(1), pages 3-59.
    4. Henrique S. Basso & Omar Rachedi, 2021. "The Young, the Old, and the Government: Demographics and Fiscal Multipliers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 110-141, October.
    5. Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Arnau Valladares-Esteban, 2025. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    6. Matías Ciaschi, 2020. "Job loss and household labor supply adjustments in developing countries: Evidence from Argentina," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0271, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    7. Eunice S. Han, 2024. "How did the COVID‐19 pandemic affect men's and women's returns to unionization?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(2), pages 172-204, April.
    8. Kim, Jiyeon, 2021. "Searching for the Cause of the Gender Gap in Employment Losses during the COVID-19 Crisis," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 43(2), pages 53-79.
    9. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo & Ghosh, Priyasmita & Medina-Cortina, Eduardo, 2023. "Long-lasting effects of a depressed labor market: Evidence from Mexico after the great recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2021. "Gender discrimination, inflation, and the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    11. Asiimire Donath & Gertrude Fester & Medard Twinamatsiko & Benard Nuwatuhaire, 2021. "Women’s employment and the changing family pattern in Ankole Sub-region- Uganda," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 5(12), pages 323-335, December.
    12. Halim, Daniel & Hambali, Sean & Purnamasari, Ririn Salwa, 2023. "Not All That It Seems : Narrowing of Gender Gaps in Employment during the Onset of COVID-19 in Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10337, The World Bank.
    13. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
    14. Ines Buono & Annalivia Polselli, 2022. "An international map of gender gaps," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 714, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. María Jose Luengo-Prado, 2021. "COVID-19 and the Labor Market Outcomes for Prime-Aged Women," Current Policy Perspectives 90899, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    17. Coskun, Sena & Dalgic, Husnu C., 2024. "The emergence of procyclical fertility: The role of breadwinner women," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    18. Carta, Francesca & De Philippis, Marta, 2020. "Comments on “labor market trends and the changing value of time”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Shaofeng Xu & Jie Feng, 2024. "Home production and time use in an epidemic," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1391-1433, November.
    20. Stefania Albanesi & Maria Jose Prados, 2022. "Slowing Women’s Labor Force Participation: The Role of Income Inequality," Working Papers 2022-037, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    21. Matías Ciaschi & Guido Neidhöfer, 2024. "Job Loss and Household Labor Supply Adjustments in Developing Countries: Evidence from Argentina," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 38(3), pages 558-579.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Stefania Albanesi, 2017. "Changing Business Cycle Dynamics in the US: The Role of Women's Employment," 2017 Meeting Papers 580, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Stefania Albanesi & Maria Jose Prados, 2022. "Slowing Women’s Labor Force Participation: The Role of Income Inequality," Working Papers 2022-037, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Masao Fukui & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2023. "Women, Wealth Effects, and Slow Recoveries," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 269-313, January.
    5. Guisinger, Amy Y., 2020. "Gender differences in the volatility of work hours and labor demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    6. Aysegul Sahin & Stefania Albanesi, 2013. "Jobless Recoveries and Gender Biased Technological Change," 2013 Meeting Papers 985, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E. & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2010. "Investment shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(2), pages 132-145, March.
    8. El-Mallakh, Nelly & Maurel, Mathilde & Speciale, Biagio, 2018. "Arab spring protests and women's labor market outcomes: Evidence from the Egyptian revolution," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 656-682.
    9. Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Arnau Valladares-Esteban, 2025. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    10. Bhalotra, Sonia & Fernandez Sierra, Manuel, 2018. "The distribution of the gender wage gap," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-10, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    11. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Coskun, Sena & Dalgic, Husnu C., 2024. "The emergence of procyclical fertility: The role of breadwinner women," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    13. Ferraresi Tommaso & Roventini Andrea & Semmler Willi, 2019. "Macroeconomic Regimes, Technological Shocks and Employment Dynamics," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(4), pages 599-625, August.
    14. Stefania Albanesi & María José Prados, 2022. "Slowing Women's Labor Force Participation: The Role of Income Inequality," NBER Working Papers 29675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Nezih Guner & Yuliya Kulikova & Arnau Valladares-Esteban, 2025. "Does the Added Worker Effect Matter?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
    16. Kathrin Ellieroth, 2019. "Spousal Insurance, Precautionary Labor Supply, and the Business Cycle - A Quantitative Analysis," 2019 Meeting Papers 1134, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2beljp6noq9u6oh9p9agr8ugra is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    19. Rania Gihleb & Osnat Lifshitz, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Educational Assortative Mating on Labor Supply," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 46, pages 302-327, October.
    20. L. Rachel Ngai & Barbara Petrongolo, 2017. "Gender Gaps and the Rise of the Service Economy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 1-44, October.
    21. Ghent, Andra C., 2009. "Comparing DSGE-VAR forecasting models: How big are the differences?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 864-882, April.
    22. Maik H. Wolters, 2018. "How the baby boomers' retirement wave distorts model‐based output gap estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(5), pages 680-689, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:17:y:2025:i:4:p:345-90. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.