IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v116y2026i2p418-63.html

Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogotá's TransMilenio

Author

Listed:
  • Nick Tsivanidis

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of improving public transit infrastructure on city structure and welfare. It develops a quantitative urban model with multiple worker groups and transit modes, and derives a special case yielding sufficient statistics for aggregate welfare in a broad class of models. The paper estimates reduced-form elasticities to implement the approach using data spanning construction of the world's largest Bus Rapid Transit system in Bogotá, Colombia. This class of models explains observed adjustments in economic activity. Standard value-of-time calculations capture only 52 percent of welfare gains. Accounting for reallocation and general equilibrium effects, distributional impacts are modest.

Suggested Citation

  • Nick Tsivanidis, 2026. "Evaluating the Impact of Urban Transit Infrastructure: Evidence from Bogotá's TransMilenio," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(2), pages 418-463, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:116:y:2026:i:2:p:418-63
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190874
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/aer.20190874
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/24549
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/materials/24550
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1257/aer.20190874?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2022. "The Welfare Effects of Transportation Infrastructure Improvements," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2911-2957.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pol Cosentino, 2026. "Trade, Commuting and City Structure," CESifo Working Paper Series 12557, CESifo.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jinwon Kim & Jucheol Moon & Dongyun Yang, 2024. "Pigouvian Congestion Tolls and the Welfare Gain: Estimates for California Freeways," Working Papers 2402, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    2. Cucu, Florin, 2025. "Roads, internal migration and the spatial sorting of U.S. high-skill workers," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum & Edouard Schaal, 2020. "Optimal Transport Networks in Spatial Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1411-1452, July.
    4. Pérez, Jorge & Vial, Felipe & Zárate, Román, 2022. "Urban Transit Infrastructure: Spatial Mismatch and Labor Market Power," Research Department working papers 1992, CAF Development Bank Of Latinamerica.
    5. César Ducruet & Réka Juhász & David Krisztián Nagy & Claudia Steinwender, 2019. "All aboard: The aggregate effects of port development," Economics Working Papers 1708, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2022.
    6. Despina Gavresi & Anastasia Litina & George Tsiachtsiras, 2022. "Railways and Roadways to Trust," Discussion Paper Series 2022_08, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Sep 2022.
    7. Alder, Simon, 2025. "Chinese roads in India: The effect of transport infrastructure on economic development," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    8. Li, Zheng & Zeng, Jingjing & Hensher, David A. & Wu, Chenyang, 2025. "Travel time reliability, psychological choice mechanisms, sustainable transport decisions and smart urban development," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    9. Ikeda, Kiyohiro & Kogure, Yosuke & Aizawa, Hiroki & Takayama, Yuki, 2025. "Reduction analysis of hierarchical spatial economy: Trade strategy around Brexit," MPRA Paper 125691, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Li, Bingjing & Ma, Lin, 2022. "JUE insight: Migration, transportation infrastructure, and the spatial transmission of COVID-19 in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Damiaan Persyn & Javier Barbero & Jorge Díaz‐Lanchas & Patrizio Lecca & Giovanni Mandras & Simone Salotti, 2023. "The ripple effects of large‐scale transport infrastructure investment," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 755-792, September.
    12. De Borger, Bruno & Mulalic, Ismir & Rouwendal, Jan, 2025. "Productivity and wage effects of an exogenous improvement in transport infrastructure: Accessibility and the Great Belt Bridge," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    13. Borck, Rainald & Mulder, Peter, 2024. "Energy policies and pollution in two developing country cities: A quantitative model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    14. Riukula, Krista & Väänänen, Touko, 2024. "Estimating the Labour Market Impacts of Transport Projects in Finland," ETLA Working Papers 120, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    15. Ron Yang, 2022. "(Don’t) Take Me Home: Home Preference and the Effect of Self-Driving Trucks on Interstate Trade," NBER Chapters, in: Economics of Artificial Intelligence, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Bluhm, Richard & Dreher, Axel & Fuchs, Andreas & Parks, Bradley C. & Strange, Austin M. & Tierney, Michael J., 2025. "Connective financing: Chinese infrastructure projects and the diffusion of economic activity in developing countries," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    17. Ducruet, César & Juhász, Réka & Nagy, Dávid Krisztián & Steinwender, Claudia, 2024. "All aboard: The effects of port development," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Pamina Koenig & Sandra Poncet & Mathieu Sanch‐Maritan & Claude Duvallet & Yoann Pigné, 2024. "Sold to China: Container traffic in the Port of Piraeus," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 510-544, May.
    19. Liu, Shaohui & Liu, Chuanjiang & Yang, Mian, 2022. "Greening of Chinese industrial sector: Stakeholders' responsiveness to non-governmental environmental monitoring," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    20. Jennifer Bennett & Robert Kornfeld & Daniel Sichel & David Wasshausen, 2020. "Measuring Infrastructure in BEA's National Economic Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Analysis and Infrastructure Investment, pages 39-100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • L98 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Government Policy
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
    • R53 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Public Facility Location Analysis; Public Investment and Capital Stock

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:116:y:2026:i:2:p:418-63. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.