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Monotonicity among Judges: Evidence from Judicial Panels and Consequences for Judge IV Designs

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  • Henrik Sigstad

Abstract

Judge IV designs rely on monotonicity—each judge being weakly stricter than more lenient judges in all cases. I measure monotonicity in judicial panels in five different settings and find that it is violated in up to 50 percent of nonunanimous cases. The monotonicity violations are not detected by conventional tests, but they would typically induce little bias in judge IV estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Henrik Sigstad, 2026. "Monotonicity among Judges: Evidence from Judicial Panels and Consequences for Judge IV Designs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 116(1), pages 189-208, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:116:y:2026:i:1:p:189-208
    DOI: 10.1257/aer.20231104
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henrik Sigstad, 2024. "Marginal Treatment Effects and Monotonicity," Papers 2404.03235, arXiv.org.
    2. David Arnold & Will Dobbie & Crystal S Yang, 2018. "Racial Bias in Bail Decisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1885-1932.
    3. Will Dobbie & Jacob Goldin & Crystal S. Yang, 2018. "The Effects of Pretrial Detention on Conviction, Future Crime, and Employment: Evidence from Randomly Assigned Judges," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(2), pages 201-240, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Megalokonomou, Rigissa, 2026. "Gender Representation and Collective Decision-Making in Expert Committees," IZA Discussion Papers 18639, IZA Network @ LISER.
    2. Rigissa Megalokonomou, 2026. "Gender Representation and Collective Decision-Making in Expert Committees," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26136, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    3. Rigissa Megalokonomou, 2026. "Gender Representation and Collective Decision-Making in Expert Committees," CESifo Working Paper Series 12661, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • K41 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Litigation Process
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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