IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/abd/kauiea/v33y2020i1no3p35-55.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Volatility Contagion and Portfolio Diversification among Shariah and Conventional Indices: An Evidence by MGARCH Models عدوى التقلبات و تنوع التصورات في أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية والأحكام التقليدية: إثبات توكيدي من خلال تطبيق نماذج MGARCH

Author

Listed:
  • Safika Praveen Sheikh

    (Junior Consultant, DEA-NIFM Programme, Ministry of Finance, New Delhi, India)

  • Shafkat Shafi Dar

    (PhD Scholar, Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, India)

  • Sajad Ahmad Rather

    (Assistant Professor, Baba Ghulam Shah Badshah University, Jammu & Kashmir, India)

Abstract

Risk mitigation is one of the main concerns for an investor, and has gotten renewed attention after the 2007-2008 financial crisis. This paper tries to examine the scope of Shariah indices in offering an opportunity for portfolio diversification. The paper empirically analyzes the existence of volatility contagion among conventional and Shariah indices and delves into the presence of portfolio diversification opportunities among them. The considered sample ranges from 11th July 2008 to 30th July 2018, and includes conventional and Shariah indices of the major economies and regions of the world (USA, Asia, Africa, and Europe). We employ ARDL cointegration and MGARCH family models viz. DCC and BEKK. The results illustrate a clear assortment among Shariah and conventional indices, suggesting an opportunity for portfolio diversification. ARDL models espouse weak cointegration among the indices, particularly during the financial crisis period. Furthermore, the BEKK model also indicates little volatility contagion for this period. The findings of this study are supportive of the argument that Shariah compliant indices offer a feasible and practical opportunity for portfolio diversification. إن عملية التخفيف من المخاطر هي واحدة من اهم الأمور التي تشغل بال المستثمر خلال السنوات التي تلت الأزمة المالية في العام 2007-2008م والتي قد حظيت باهتمامات متجددة. تحاول هذه الورقة البحثية أن تتحرى مجال أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية في تقديم فرصة للتنوع في الحلول و التصورات. تقوم هذه الورقة البحثية بإجراء تحليلات تجريبية بصدد وجود عدوى التقلبات ضمن أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية و الأحكام التقليدية مع إمعان النظر في فرص وجود التنوع في التصورات ضمن تلك الأحكام. لقد اشتملت مديات النماذج التي أُخذت بالاعتبار للفترة 11 تموز/يوليو 2008 – 30 تموز/يوليو 2018م على أحكام للشريعة الإسلامية و أحكام تقليدية لاهم الاقتصادات في مختلف مناطق العالم (أمريكا، آسيا، أفريقيا، وأوروبا). لقد تم استخدام نماذج . لقد أظهرت النتائج تنوعا ملحوظا ضمنBEKK و DCC و التي هي MGARCH Family مع استخدامARDL أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية و الأحكام التقليدية بما يعطي إمكانية وجود فرص للتنوع في التصورات. لقد أظهرت نماذج ضعفا إزاء المشاركة في التكامل ضمن الأحكام المتخذة، و على وجه الخصوص إبان فترة الأزمة المالية. فضلا ARDL مستوى منخفضا من عدوى التقلبات خلال الفترة المذكورة. BEKKعن ذلك فلقد أظهر نموذج لقد كانت النتائج إيجابية و مشجعة إزاء النقاش حول مدى ملاءمة أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية للتكيف بما يقدم فرصة عملية و مجدية للتنوع في الحلول و التصورات.

Suggested Citation

  • Safika Praveen Sheikh & Shafkat Shafi Dar & Sajad Ahmad Rather, 2020. "Volatility Contagion and Portfolio Diversification among Shariah and Conventional Indices: An Evidence by MGARCH Models عدوى التقلبات و تنوع التصورات في أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية والأحكام التقليدية: إثب," Journal of King Abdulaziz University: Islamic Economics, King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute., vol. 33(1), pages 35-55, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:abd:kauiea:v:33:y:2020:i:1:no:3:p:35-55
    DOI: 10.4197/Islec.33-1.3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://iei.kau.edu.sa/Files/121/Files/153867_33-01-03-Safika-Sheikh-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4197/Islec.33-1.3?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Palley, 2011. "America’s flawed paradigm: macroeconomic causes of the financial crisis and great recession," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 3-17, February.
    2. Jacopo Carmassi & Daniel Gros & Stefano Micossi, 2009. "The Global Financial Crisis: Causes and Cures," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(5), pages 977-996, November.
    3. Rahim, Yasmin Abd & Masih, Mansur, 2015. "Is Islamic stock index secured against interest rate risk? Evidence from Wavelet analysis," MPRA Paper 65259, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Wade, Robert, 1998. "The Asian debt-and-development crisis of 1997-?: Causes and consequences," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1535-1553, August.
    5. Fredj Jawadi & Nabila Jawadi & Waël Louhichi, 2014. "Conventional and Islamic stock price performance: An empirical investigation," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 73-87.
    6. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    7. Ahmad, Wasim & Rais, Shirin & Shaik, Abdul Rahman, 2018. "Modelling the directional spillovers from DJIM Index to conventional benchmarks: Different this time?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 14-27.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Hassan, M. Kabir & Girard, Eric, 2010. "Faith-Based Ethical Investing: The Case Of Dow Jones Islamic Indexes," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 17, pages 1-31.
    10. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Adrian Pop, 2012. "Are Islamic Indexes more Volatile than Conventional Indexes? Evidence from Dow Jones Indexes," Working Papers hal-00678895, HAL.
    11. Bhatt , Vaishnavi & Sultan, Jahangir, 2012. "Leverage Risk, Financial Crisis, and Stock Returns: A Comparison among Islamic, Conventional, and Socially Responsible Stocks," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 20, pages 87-143.
    12. repec:cii:cepiei:2014-q1-137-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:47:y:2009:i::p:977-996 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Naifar, Nader, 2016. "Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-39.
    15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    16. Rizvi, Syed Aun & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Do Shariah (Islamic) Indices Provide a Safer Avenue in Crisis? Empirical Evidence from Dow Jones Indices using Multivariate GARCH-DCC," MPRA Paper 57701, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Karim, Muhammad Mahmudul & Kawsar, Najmul Haque & Ariff, Mohamed & Masih, Mansur, 2022. "Does implied volatility (or fear index) affect Islamic stock returns and conventional stock returns differently? Wavelet-based granger-causality, asymmetric quantile regression and NARDL approaches," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Audi, Marc & Sadiq, Azhar & Ali, Amjad, 2021. "Performance Evaluation of Islamic and Non-Islamic Equity and Bonds Indices: Evidence from selected Emerging and Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 109866, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Faris Alshubiri, 2021. "Portfolio Returns of Islamic Indices and Stock Prices in GCC Countries: Empirical Evidence From the ARDL Model," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, May.
    4. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Ahmed, Habib & Husam Helmi, Mohamad, 2023. "Determinants of financial stability and risk transmission in dual financial system: Evidence from the COVID pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Gubareva, Mariya & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2022. "Spillover and risk transmission between the term structure of the US interest rates and Islamic equities," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    6. Mongi Arfaoui & Bechir Raggad, 2023. "Do Dow Jones Islamic equity indices undergo speculative pressure? New insights from a nonlinear and asymmetric analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1582-1601, April.
    7. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Asghar, Nadia & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Do Islamic indices provide diversification to bitcoin? A time-varying copulas and value at risk application," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    8. Hasan, Md Abu, 2019. "Co-Movement and Volatility Transmission between Islamic and Conventional Equity Index in Bangladesh," Islamic Economic Studies, The Islamic Research and Training Institute (IRTI), vol. 26, pages 43-71.
    9. Gad, Samar & Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis, 2019. "Diversification benefits of Shari'ah compliant equity ETFs in emerging markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 133-144.
    10. Ahmad, Wasim & Rais, Shirin & Shaik, Abdul Rahman, 2018. "Modelling the directional spillovers from DJIM Index to conventional benchmarks: Different this time?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 14-27.
    11. Delle Foglie, Andrea & Panetta, Ida Claudia, 2020. "Islamic stock market versus conventional: Are islamic investing a ‘Safe Haven’ for investors? A systematic literature review," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Rangan Gupta & Patrick Kanda & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Predicting Stock Market Movements in the United States: The Role of Presidential Approval Ratings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 324-335, March.
    13. Areola Hernandez, Jose & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Dutta, Anupam & Ahmed, Ali & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2020. "Are ethanol markets globalized or regionalized?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 551(C).
    14. D’Ecclesia, Rita Laura & Morelli, Giacomo & Stefanelli, Kevyn, 2024. "Energy ETF performance: The role of fossil fuels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Mikhail B. Petrov & Leonid A. Serkov, 2024. "Analysis of Long-Term and Short-Term Relationships between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in Industrialized Regions of Russia," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(1), pages 136-158.
    16. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2015. "Applied econometrics and implications for energy economics research," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 351-358.
    17. Ahmet Sensoy, 2016. "Systematic Risk in Conventional and Islamic Equity Markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 457-466, September.
    18. Nikeel Kumar & Ronald Ravinesh Kumar & Radika Kumar & Peter Josef Stauvermann, 2020. "Is the tourism–growth relationship asymmetric in the Cook Islands? Evidence from NARDL cointegration and causality tests," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(4), pages 658-681, June.
    19. Hutchinson, Mark C. & Mulcahy, Mark & O'Brien, John, 2018. "What is the cost of faith? An empirical investigation of Islamic purification," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 134-143.
    20. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Co-integration; Financial crisis; Shariah-compliant index; Volatility spillover. المشاركة في التكامل، الأزمة المالية، ملاءمة أحكام الشريعة الإسلامية للتكيف، احتواء التقلبات.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:abd:kauiea:v:33:y:2020:i:1:no:3:p:35-55. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: King Abdulaziz University, Islamic Economics Institute. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cikausa.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.