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Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes

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Author Info
Ernst Fehr
Jean-Robert Tyran

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Abstract

There is abundant evidence that many individuals violate the rationality assumptions routinely made in economics. However, powerful evidence also indicates that violations of individual rationality do not necessarily refute the aggregate predictions of standard economic models that assume full rationality of all agents. Thus, a key question is how the interactions between rational and irrational people shape the aggregate outcome in markets and other institutions. We discuss evidence indicating that strategic complementarity and strategic substitutability are decisive determinants of aggregate outcomes. Under strategic complementarity, a small amount of individual irrationality may lead to large deviations from the aggregate predictions of rational models, whereas a minority of rational agents may suffice to generate aggregate outcomes consistent with the predictions of rational models under strategic substitutability.

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Paper provided by Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - IEW in its series IEW - Working Papers with number iewwp252.

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Related research
Keywords: Irrationality; Rationality; Anomaly; Aggregate Outcome; Competitive Markets; Money Illusion; Base Rate Fallacy;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General
C70 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - General
C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General

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  1. Mattos, Fabio & Garcia, Philip & Pennings, Joost M.E., 2008. "Dynamic Decision Making in Agricultural Futures and Options Markets," 2008 Conference, April 21-22, 2008, St. Louis, Missouri 37605, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. [Downloadable!]
  2. Bruno Contini & Matteo Morini, 2007. "Testing Bounded Rationality against Full Rationality in Job Changing Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 3148, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  3. Bruno Contini, 2008. "Testing Bounded Rationality Against Full Rationality in Job Changing Behavior," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 81, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies. [Downloadable!]
  4. Miettinen, Topi, 2008. "Contracts and Promises - An Approach to Pre-play Agreements," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 707, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Burnham, Terence C. & Cesarini, David & Wallace, Björn & Johannesson, Magnus & Lichtenstein, Paul, 2007. "Billiards and Brains: Cognitive Ability and Behavior in a p-Beauty Contest," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 684, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Sjögren Lindquist, Gabriella & Säve-Söderbergh, Jenny, 2006. "Testing the rationality assumption using a design difference in the TV game show 'Jeopardy'," Working Paper Series 9/2006, Swedish Institute for Social Research. [Downloadable!]
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