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Bubbles in experimental asset markets: Irrational exuberance no more

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  • Lucy F. Ackert
  • Bryan K. Church
  • Richard Deaves

Abstract

The robustness of bubbles and crashes in markets for finitely lived assets is perplexing. This paper reports the results of experimental asset markets in which participants trade two assets. In some markets, price bubbles form. In these markets, traders will pay even higher prices for the asset with lottery characteristics, i.e., a claim on a large, unlikely payoff. However, institutional design has a significant impact on deviations in prices from fundamental values, particularly for an asset with lottery characteristics. Price run-ups and crashes are moderated when traders finance purchases of the assets themselves and are allowed to short sell.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 2002-24.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:2002-24

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Keywords: Financial markets ; Risk;

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References

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  1. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-59, July.
  2. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  3. Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
  4. Fuller, Wayne A. & Battese, George E., 1974. "Estimation of linear models with crossed-error structure," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 67-78, May.
  5. Garber, Peter M, 1990. "Famous First Bubbles," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 35-54, Spring.
  6. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church, 1998. "The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets," Working Paper 98-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
  8. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Liu, Jun, 2005. "Why stocks may disappoint," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 471-508, June.
  9. Gul, Faruk, 1991. "A Theory of Disappointment Aversion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 667-86, May.
  10. Daniel Kahneman & Jack L. Knetsch & Richard H. Thaler, 1991. "Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-206, Winter.
  11. Figlewski, Stephen & Webb, Gwendolyn P, 1993. " Options, Short Sales, and Market Completeness," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 761-77, June.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Jorgen Vitting Andersen, 2003. "Could short selling make financial markets tumble?," Papers cond-mat/0308548, arXiv.org.
  2. Ernst Fehr & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2005. "Individual Irrationality and Aggregate Outcomes," Discussion Papers 05-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  3. Fellner, Gerlinde & Theissen, Erik, 2011. "Short sale constraints, divergence of opinion and asset value: Evidence from the laboratory," CFR Working Papers 11-03, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
  4. Anna Scherbina, 2013. "Asset Price Bubbles," IMF Working Papers 13/45, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Uri Ben-Zion & Ido Erev & Ernan Haruvy & TAL SHAVIT, 2007. "Under-Diversification And The Role Of Best Reply To Pattern," Working Papers 0707, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  6. Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2009. "Rational and Irrational Bubbles: an Experiment," TSE Working Papers 09-045, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  7. Moinas, Sophie & Pouget, Sébastien, 2009. "The Bubble Game : An experimental Study of Speculation (An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title "The Rational and Irrational Bubbles : an Experiment")," IDEI Working Papers 560, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised Jan 2012.
  8. Uri Ben-Zion & Shosh Shahrabani & TAL SHAVIT, 2007. "Short-selling and the WTA-WTP gap," Working Papers 0706, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
  9. Hauser, Florian & Huber, Jürgen, 2012. "Short-selling constraints as cause for price distortions: An experimental study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1279-1298.
  10. Fischbacher, Urs & Hens, Thorsten & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2013. "The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2104-2122.
  11. Powell, O.R., 2010. "Essays on experimental bubble markets," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-4219264, Tilburg University.
  12. Kirchler, Michael, 2009. "Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets. An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 491-506, February.

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