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The effects of subject pool and design experience on rationality in experimental asset markets

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Author Info
Lucy F. Ackert
Bryan K. Church

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Abstract

Empirical evidence suggests that prices do not always reflect fundamental values and individual behavior is often inconsistent with rational expectations theory. We report the results of fourteen experimental markets designed to examine whether the interactive effect of subject pool and design experience tempers price bubbles and improves forecasting ability. Our main findings are: (i) price run-ups are modest and dissipate quickly when traders are knowledgeable about financial markets and have design experience; (ii) price bubbles moderate quickly when only a subset of traders are knowledgeable and experienced; and (iii) individual forecasts of price are not consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations model in any market.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta in its series Working Paper with number 98-18.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedawp:98-18

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Keywords: Financial markets;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Camerer, Colin, 1992. "The rationality of prices and volume in experimental markets," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 237-272, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Smith, Vernon L, 1985. "Experimental Economics: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 264-72, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Porter, David P & Smith, Vernon L, 1995. "Futures Contracting and Dividend Uncertainty in Experimental Asset Markets," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(4), pages 509-41, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Godfrey, Leslie G., 1978. "Testing for multiplicative heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 227-236, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Keane, Michael P & Runkle, David E, 1990. "Testing the Rationality of Price Forecasts: New Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(4), pages 714-35, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Breusch, T S & Pagan, A R, 1979. "A Simple Test for Heteroscedasticity and Random Coefficient Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(5), pages 1287-94, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. " Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-78, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Cason, Timothy N. & Friedman, Daniel, 1996. "Price formation in double auction markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(8), pages 1307-1337, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Haltiwanger, John & Waldman, Michael, 1985. "Rational Expectations and the Limits of Rationality: An Analysis of Heterogeneity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 326-40, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 1999. "The effect of forecast bias on market behavior: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 99-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  2. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2002. "Bubbles in experimental asset markets: Irrational exuberance no more," Working Paper 2002-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
  3. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2003. "Emotion and financial markets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 33-41. [Downloadable!]
  4. Lucy F. Ackert & Bryan K. Church & Ping Zhang, 2002. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: evidence from experimental asset markets," Working Paper 2002-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Richard Deaves & Brian D. Kluger, 2006. "The origins of bubbles in laboratory asset markets," Working Paper 2006-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
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