Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Household`s Disagreement on Inflation Expectations and Socioeconomic Media Exposure in Germany

Contents:

Author Info

  • Menz, Jan-Oliver
  • Poppitz, Philipp

Abstract

Inflation expectations are often found to depend on socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households, such as age, income and education, however, the reasons for this systematic heterogeneity are not yet fully understood. Since accounting for these expectation differentials could help improve the communication strategies of central banks, we test the impact of three sources of the demographic effect on inflation expectations using data for Germany. Overall, our findings suggest that household-specific inflation rates and group-specific news consumption accounts for the higher forecast errors of younger and older households, households with lower income and unemployed survey respondents, while households inflation perceptions only play a minor role. --

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/80006/1/VfS_2013_pid_541.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order with number 80006.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:80006

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.socialpolitik.org/
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Giampiero M. Gallo & Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2001. "Copycats and Common Swings: the Impact of the Use of Forecasts in Information Sets," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2001_01, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
  2. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2005. "The Market for News," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1031-1053, September.
  3. Bomberger, William A, 1996. "Disagreement as a Measure of Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 381-92, August.
  4. Ernest Gnan & Johannes Langthaler & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2011. "Heterogeneity in Euro Area Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: Some Stylized Facts and Implications," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 43–66.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 2001. "The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8695, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Matthew Gentzkow & Jesse M. Shapiro, 2010. "What Drives Media Slant? Evidence From U.S. Daily Newspapers," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 35-71, 01.
  7. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
  8. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2002. "What measure of inflation should a central bank target?," Working Paper Series 0170, European Central Bank.
  9. Bart Hobijn & David Lagakos, 2005. "Inflation Inequality In The United States," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 51(4), pages 581-606, December.
  10. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
  11. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2008. "Planning and Financial Literacy: How Do Women Fare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 413-17, May.
  12. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2007. "Sticky Information in General Equilibrium," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 603-613, 04-05.
  13. Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  14. David G. Blanchflower & Conall MacCoille, 2009. "The formation of inflation expectations: an empirical analysis for the UK," NBER Working Papers 15388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2012. "News on Inflation and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Paper 2012-048, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  16. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2009. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2-3), pages 365-396, 03.
  17. Ranyard, Rob & Missier, Fabio Del & Bonini, Nicolao & Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara, 2008. "Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 378-400, August.
  18. Michael J. Lamla & Thomas Maag, 2012. "The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professional Forecasters," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(7), pages 1325-1350, October.
  19. Sendhil Mullainathan & Andrei Shleifer, 2002. "Media Bias," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1981, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  20. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  21. Mary A. Burke & Michael Manz, 2011. "Economic literacy and inflation expectations: evidence from a laboratory experiment," Public Policy Discussion Paper 11-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  22. Roberta Colavecchio & Ulrich Fritsche & Michael Graff, 2011. "Inflation Inequality in Europe," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201102, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  23. Fishe, Raymond P H & Idson, Todd L, 1990. "Information-Induced Heteroscedasticity in Price Expectations Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(2), pages 304-12, May.
  24. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
  25. Arto Luoma & Jani Luoto, 2009. "Modelling the general public's inflation expectations using the Michigan survey data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(10), pages 1311-1320.
  26. Michael J. Lamla & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The Role of Media for Consumers' Inflation Expectation Formation," KOF Working papers 08-201, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Lena Dräger & Ulrich Fritsche, 2013. "Don't Worry, Be Right! Survey Wording Effects on In flation Perceptions and Expectations," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 201308, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  2. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2014. "Consumer Attitudes and the Epidemiology of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 14-28, Bank of Canada.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc13:80006. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.