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Inflation Expectations in the EU: Results from Survey Data

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  • Nielsen, Hannah
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    Abstract

    Inflation expectations are extracted from the Consumer Survey, which is conducted by the European Commission for the European Union. Using the probability method to quantify the qualitative answers different distribution functions and scaling parameters are assumed to cope with the properties of the data properly. The forecasting ability of respective series is assessed also compared to the balance statistic. Furthermore the time horizon of the survey participants while answering the questionnaire is analyzed, because the empirical results show that it might not coincide with the time horizon implied by the formulation of the question. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes in its series SFB 373 Discussion Papers with number 2003,13.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200313

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    Related research

    Keywords: Inflation expectations; survey data; quantification methods;

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    References

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    1. Praetz, Peter D, 1972. "The Distribution of Share Price Changes," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(1), pages 49-55, January.
    2. Vining, Daniel R, Jr & Elwertowski, Thomas C, 1976. "The Relationship between Relative Prices and the General Price Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(4), pages 699-708, September.
    3. Balcombe, Kelvin, 1996. "The Carlson-Parkin method applied to NZ price expectations using QSBO survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 51-57, April.
    4. Batchelor, R. A., 1981. "Aggregate expectations under the stable laws," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 199-210, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Konstantins Benkovskis & Daina Paula, 2007. "Inflation Expectations in Latvia: Consumer Survey Based Results," Working Papers 2007/01, Latvijas Banka.
    2. Mestre, Ricardo, 2007. "Are survey-based inflation expections in the euro area informative?," Working Paper Series 0721, European Central Bank.

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