Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ranyard, Rob
  • Missier, Fabio Del
  • Bonini, Nicolao
  • Duxbury, Darren
  • Summers, Barbara

Abstract

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals' perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals' economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V8H-4T2TWWP-2/2/df2d2a4a7282200ba369610b75a0ce6b
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Psychology.

Volume (Year): 29 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (August)
Pages: 378-400

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:29:y:2008:i:4:p:378-400

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/joep

Related research

Keywords:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
  2. Brachinger, Hans Wolfgang, 2008. "A new index of perceived inflation: Assumptions, method, and application to Germany," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 433-457, August.
  3. Jonung, Lars & Laidler, David E, 1988. "Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational? Some Evidence for Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1080-87, December.
  4. Fischer, Charles C., 1986. "The differential impact of inflation on key societal interest groups and public policy implications," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 371-386, September.
  5. Helmut Jungermann & Hans Brachinger & Julia Belting & Katarzyna Grinberg & Elisabeth Zacharias, 2007. "The Euro Changeover and the Factors Influencing Perceived Inflation," Journal of Consumer Policy, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 405-419, December.
  6. Carlson, John A & Parkin, J Michael, 1975. "Inflation Expectations," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 42(166), pages 123-38, May.
  7. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-68, December.
  8. Heath, Timothy B & Chatterjee, Subimal & France, Karen Russo, 1995. " Mental Accounting and Changes in Price: The Frame Dependence of Reference Dependence," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(1), pages 90-97, June.
  9. Simmons, Peter & Weiserbs, Daniel, 1990. "Consumer Price Perceptions and Expectations," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 1990011, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  10. Shaw, Graham K, 1987. "Rational Expectations," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 187-209, July.
  11. Manfred Fluch & Helmut Stix, 2005. "Perceived Inflation in Austria – Extent, Explanations, Effects," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 22–47.
  12. Bastounis, Marina & Leiser, David & Roland-Levy, Christine, 2004. "Psychosocial variables involved in the construction of lay thinking about the economy: Results of a cross-national survey," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 263-278, April.
  13. Williamson, Maureen R. & Wearing, Alexander J., 1996. "Lay people's cognitive models of the economy," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 3-38, February.
  14. Antonides, Gerrit, 2008. "How is perceived inflation related to actual price changes in the European Union?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 417-432, August.
  15. Kemp, Simon & Willetts, Karyn, 1996. "Remembering the price of wool," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 115-125, February.
  16. Defris, L V & Williams, R A, 1979. "The Formation of Consumer Inflationary Expectations in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(149), pages 136-48, June.
  17. Bates, John M. & Gabor, Andre, 1986. "Price perception in creeping inflation: Report on an enquiry," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-314, September.
  18. Batchelor, R. A., 1986. "The psychophysics of inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 269-290, September.
  19. Janiszewski, Chris & Lichtenstein, Donald R, 1999. " A Range Theory Account of Price Perception," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(4), pages 353-68, March.
  20. Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
  21. Niedrich, Ronald W & Sharma, Subhash & Wedell, Douglas H, 2001. " Reference Price and Price Perceptions: A Comparison of Alternative Models," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 339-54, December.
  22. Greitemeyer, Tobias & Schulz-Hardt, Stefan & Traut-Mattausch, Eva & Frey, Dieter, 2005. "The influence of price trend expectations on price trend perceptions: Why the Euro seems to make life more expensive?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 541-548, August.
  23. Leiser, David & Drori, Shelly, 2005. "NaIve understanding of inflation," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 179-198, March.
  24. Urbany, Joel E & Bearden, William O & Weilbaker, Dan C, 1988. " The Effect of Plausible and Exaggerated Reference Prices on Consumer Perceptions and Price Search," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 95-110, June.
  25. Jacobson, Robert & Obermiller, Carl, 1990. " The Formation of Expected Future Price: A Reference Price for Forward-Looking Consumers," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 16(4), pages 420-32, March.
  26. Bruce G. S. Hardie & Eric J. Johnson & Peter S. Fader, 1993. "Modeling Loss Aversion and Reference Dependence Effects on Brand Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(4), pages 378-394.
  27. Vincenzo Cestari & Paolo Del Giovane & Clelia Rossi-Arnaud, 2007. "Memory for prices and the euro cash changeover: An analysis for cinema prices in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 619, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  28. Svenson, Ola & Nilsson, Goran, 1986. "Mental economics: Subjective representations of factors related to expected inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 327-349, September.
  29. Kemp, Simon, 1987. "Estimation of past prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-189, June.
  30. Gärling, Tommy & Gamble, Amelie, 2008. "Perceived inflation and expected future prices in different currencies," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 401-416, August.
  31. Gurumurthy Kalyanaram & Russell S. Winer, 1995. "Empirical Generalizations from Reference Price Research," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 14(3_supplem), pages G161-G169.
  32. Webley, Paul & Spears, Russell, 1986. "Economic preferences and inflationary expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 359-369, September.
  33. Kemp, Simon, 1984. "Perception of changes in the cost of living," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 313-323, December.
  34. Kalyanaram, Gurumurthy & Little, John D C, 1994. " An Empirical Analysis of Latitude of Price Acceptance in Consumer Package Goods," Journal of Consumer Research, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(3), pages 408-18, December.
  35. Daniel S. Putler, 1992. "Incorporating Reference Price Effects into a Theory of Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 11(3), pages 287-309.
  36. Pruitt, Stephen W. & Reilly, Robert J. & Hoffer, George E., 1988. "The effect of media presentation on the formation of economic expectations: Some initial evidence," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 315-325, September.
  37. Kemp, Simon, 1991. "Remembering and dating past prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 431-445, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon Potter & Robert Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
  2. Antonides, Gerrit, 2008. "How is perceived inflation related to actual price changes in the European Union?," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 417-432, August.
  3. Yuxiang, Karl & Chen, Zhongchang, 2010. "Monetary policy credibility and inflationary expectation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 487-497, August.
  4. Duffy, David & Lunn, Pete, 2008. "The Misperception of Inflation by Irish Consumers," Papers WP261, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  5. Azar, Ofer H., 2013. "Competitive strategy when consumers are affected by reference prices," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 327-340.
  6. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Giorgio Topa, 2011. "Expectations of inflation: the biasing effect of thoughts about specific prices," Staff Reports 489, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon Potter & Michael Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  8. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Julie S. Downs & Baruch Fischhoff & Giorgio Topa & Olivier Armantier, 2010. "The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation," Staff Reports 443, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Duxbury, Darren & Summers, Barbara & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin, 2013. "How people evaluate defined contribution, annuity-based pension arrangements: A behavioral exploration," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-269.
  10. Huber, Odilo W., 2011. "Frequency of price increases and perceived inflation. An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 651-661.
  11. Bruine de Bruin, Wändi & van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Topa, Giorgio & Downs, Julie S. & Fischhoff, Baruch & Armantier, Olivier, 2012. "The effect of question wording on consumers’ reported inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 749-757.
  12. Menz, Jan-Oliver & Poppitz, Philipp, 2013. "Households' disagreement on inflation expectations and socioeconomic media exposure in Germany," Discussion Papers 27/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  13. Lunn, Pete & Duffy, David, 2010. "The Euro Through the Looking-Glass: Perceived Inflation Following the 2002 Currency Changeover," Papers WP338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  14. Gärling, Tommy & Gamble, Amelie & Christandl, Fabian, 2013. "Income increases do not compensate for perceived inflation—A price-consumption anomaly," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 11-15.
  15. Georganas, Sotiris & Healy, Paul J. & Li, Nan, 2014. "Frequency bias in consumers׳ perceptions of inflation: An experimental study," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 144-158.
  16. Delphine Irac & Nicolas Herpin & Claire Célérier & Jérôme Accardo, 2011. "L'inflation perçue," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 447(1), pages 3-31.
  17. van der Cruijsen, Carin A.B. & Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W., 2010. "From actual to perceived transparency: The case of the European Central Bank," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 388-399, June.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:joepsy:v:29:y:2008:i:4:p:378-400. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.