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The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation

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Abstract

Public expectations and perceptions of inflation may affect economic decisions, and have subsequent effects on actual inflation. The Michigan Survey of Consumers uses questions about "prices in general" to measure expected and perceived inflation. Median responses track official measure of inflation, showing some tendency toward overestimation and considerable disagreement between respondents. Possibly, responses reflect how much respondents thought of salient personal experiences with specific prices when being asked about "prices in general." Here, we randomly assigned respondents to questions about "prices in general," as well as "the rate of inflation" and "price you pay." Reported expectations and perceptions were higher and more dispersed for "prices in general" than for "the rate of inflation," with "prices you pay" and "prices in general" showing similar responses patterns. Compared to questions about "the rate of inflation," questions about "prices in general" and "prices you pay" focused respondents relatively more on personal price experiences--and elicited expectations that were more strongly correlate to the expected price increases for food and transportation, which were relatively large and likely salient, but not to the expected price increases for housing, which were relatively small and likely less salient. Our results have implications for survey measures of inflation expectations.

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  • Olivier Armantier & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Julie S. Downs & Baruch Fischhoff & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "The effect of question wording on reported expectations and perceptions of inflation," Staff Reports 443, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:443
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Wilbert van der Klaauw, Julie S. Downs, Baruch Fischhoff, Giorgio Topa, and Olivier Armantier, "The Effect of Question Wording on Reported Expectations and Perceptions of Inflation," Journal of Economic Psychology 33, no. 4 (August 2012): 749-57.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Ballantyne & Christian Gillitzer & David Jacobs & Ewan Rankin, 2016. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2016-02, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    2. Ewa Stanisławska, 2019. "Consumers’ Perception of Inflation in Inflationary and Deflationary Environment," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 41-71, April.
    3. Olivier Armantier & Scott Nelson & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Basit Zafar, 2016. "The Price Is Right: Updating Inflation Expectations in a Randomized Price Information Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 503-523, July.
    4. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Simon M. Potter & Robert W. Rich & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2010. "Improving survey measures of household inflation expectations," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 16(Aug/Sep).
    5. Olympia Bover, 2015. "Measuring expectations from household surveys: new results on subjective probabilities of future house prices," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 361-405, November.
    6. J. Easaw & R. Golinelli & M. Malgarini, 2012. "Do Households Anchor their Inflation Expectations? Theory and Evidence from a Household Survey," Working Papers wp842, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Rossmann, Tobias, 2019. "Economic Uncertainty and Subjective Inflation Expectations," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 160, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    8. Sophie Mitra & Chan Shen & Jahnavi Pinnamraju & R. Constance Wiener & Hao Wang & Mona Pathak & Patricia A. Findley & Usha Sambamoorthi, 2024. "Stress Due to Inflation: Changes over Time, Correlates, and Coping Strategies among Working-Age Adults in the United States," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 21(2), pages 1-16, January.
    9. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2016. "Learning from Potentially-Biased Statistics: Household Inflation Perceptions and Expectations in Argentina," NBER Working Papers 22103, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    question design; consumer surveys; inflation expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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