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How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?

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  • Dovern, Jonas
  • Meier, Carsten-Patrick
  • Vilsmeier, Johannes

Abstract

Macro-stress testing studies often rely on rather short sample periods due to the limited availability of banking data. They may fail to appropriately account for the cyclicality in the interaction between the banking system and macroeconomic developments. In this paper we use a newly constructed data set on German banks' income and loss statements over the past 36 years to model the interaction between the banking sector and the macroeconomy. Our identified-VAR analysis indicates that the level of stress in the banking sector is strongly affected by monetary policy shocks. The results rationalize the active behavior of central banks observed during periods of financial market crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Dovern, Jonas & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Vilsmeier, Johannes, 2008. "How resilient is the German banking system to macroeconomic shocks?," Kiel Working Papers 1419, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:1419
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    3. Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2011. "Firm survival and financial development: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1736-1752, July.
    4. Rotermund, Sophie-Dorothee, 2019. "Assessing systemic risk: An analysis of the German banking sector," IPE Working Papers 129/2019, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
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    6. Paolo Guarda & Abdelaziz Rouabah & John Theal, 2011. "An MVAR Framework to Capture Extreme Events in Macroprudential Stress Tests," BCL working papers 63, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Siti Muliana Samsi & Zarinah Yusof & Kee-Cheok Cheong, 2012. "Linkages Between the Real Sector and the Financial Sector: The Case of Malaysia," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 8(Supp. 1), pages 93-113.
    8. Baltas, Konstantinos N. & Kapetanios, George & Tsionas, Efthymios & Izzeldin, Marwan, 2017. "Liquidity creation through efficient M&As: A viable solution for vulnerable banking systems? Evidence from a stress test under a panel VAR methodology," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 36-56.
    9. Abildgren, Kim, 2014. "Far out in the tails – The historical distributions of macro-financial risk factors in Denmark," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2014(1), pages 1-31.
    10. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.
    11. Blank, Sven & Dovern, Jonas, 2009. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system? Analysis in an integrated micro-macro model," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2009,15, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Oparah Felix Chukwudi & James Tumba Henry, 2020. "Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in the Nigerian Banking Industry," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(1), pages 82-114, January.
    13. Harun, Cicilia A. & Taruna, Aditya Anta & Ramdani,, 2021. "Capturing the nonlinear impact in distress state: Enhancing scenario design of stress test," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 265-288.
    14. Hadad, Muliaman D. & Agusman, Agusman & Monroe, Gary S. & Gasbarro, Dominic & Zumwalt, James Kenton, 2011. "Market discipline, financial crisis and regulatory changes: Evidence from Indonesian banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1552-1562, June.
    15. Bhaumik, Sumon Kumar & Dang, Vinh & Kutan, Ali M., 2011. "Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2418-2428, September.
    16. Abildgren, Kim, 2012. "Business cycles, monetary transmission and shocks to financial stability: empirical evidence from a new set of Danish quarterly national accounts 1948-2010," Working Paper Series 1458, European Central Bank.
    17. Molterer, Manuel, 2019. "Tougher than the rest? The resilience of specialized financial intermediation to macroeconomic shocks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 163-174.
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    20. Sven Blank & Jonas Dovern, 2010. "What macroeconomic shocks affect the German banking system?," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(2), pages 126-148, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking; VAR; Stress testing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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