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The agricultural policy simulator (AgriPoliS): an agent-based model to study structural change in agriculture (Version 1.0)

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  • Happe, Kathrin
  • Balmann, Alfons
  • Kellermann, Konrad

Abstract

A central criticism common to agricultural economic modelling approaches for policy analysis is that they do not adequately take account of a number of characteristic factors of the agricultural sector. This concerns aspects like the immobility of land, heterogeneity of farms, interactions between farms, space, dynamic adjustment processes as well as dynamics of structural change. In brief, modelling the complexity of the system has not been at the centre of interest. In terms of modelling complex economic systems, an agent-based modelling approach is a suitable approach to quantitatively model and understand such systems in a more natural way. In the same way, this applies to the modelling of agricultural structures. In particular, agent-based models of agricultural structures allow for carrying out computer experiments to support a better understanding of the complexity of agricultural systems, structural change, and endogenous adjustment reactions in response to a policy change. This paper presents the agent-based model AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator) which simultaneously considers a large number of individually acting farms, product markets, investment activity, as well as the land market, and a simple spatial representation. The ultimate objective of AgriPoliS is to study the interrelationship of rents, technical change, product prices, investments, production and policies, structural effects resulting from these, the analysis of the winners and losers of agricultural policy as well as the costs and efficiency of various policy measures. -- G E R M A N V E R S I O N: Ein oft genannter Kritikpunkt an vielen agrarökonomischen Politikanalysemodellen ist, dass diese nur ungenügend Bezug nehmen auf Aspekte wie die Immobilität von Boden, Heterogenität der Akteure, Interaktionen zwischen Betrieben, räumliche Bezüge, dynamische Anpassungsprozesse und Strukturwandel. Kurz, die Modellierung komplexer Wirkungszusammenhänge steht weniger oder nicht im Zentrum des Interesses. Agentenbasierte Modelle stellen einen Weg dar, das Verständnis komplexer ökonomischer Zusammenhänge zu verbessern bzw. zu quantifizieren. Insbesondere erlauben sie die Durchführung von einer Vielzahl von Computerexperimenten, mit denen Fragestellungen wie der Zusammenhang zwischen Politikmaßnahmen und Strukturwandel untersucht werden können. Basierend darauf, stellt dieser Beitrag das agentenbasierte Modell AgriPoliS (Agricultural Policy Simulator) vor. AgriPoliS ist ein räumlich-dynamisches Modell einer Agrarstruktur, in dem eine Vielzahl individuell abgebildeter landwirtschaftlicher Unternehmen in einer vereinfacht dargestellten Agrarregion agiert und beispielsweise um begrenzt verfügbare landwirtschaftliche Flächen konkurriert.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO) in its series IAMO Discussion Papers with number 71.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:iamodp:14886

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Keywords: Agent-based systems; Multi-agent systems; Policy analysis; Structural change; Simulation; Agentenbasierte Systeme; Politikanalyse; Multi-Agentensysteme; Strukturwandel; Simulation;

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References

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  1. Beghin, John C. & Dong, Fengxia & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Fuller, Frank H. & Hart, Chad E. & Kovacik, Karen & Matthey, Holger & Saak, Alexander E. & Tokgoz, Simla & Chavez, Eddie C. , 2004. "FAPRI 2004 U.S. and World Agricultural Outlook," Staff Reports, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) 32046, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI).
  2. Alfons Oude Lansink & Ky–sti Pietola, 2002. "Effciency and productivity of conventional and organic farms in Finland 1994--1997," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 51-66, March.
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Cited by:
  1. Zimmermann, Andrea & Heckelei, Thomas & Perez Dominguez, Ignacio, 2006. "Working paper: Literature Review of Approaches to Estimate Structural Change," Reports, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society 9304, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society.
  2. Schilling, Chris & Kaye-Blake, William & Post, Elizabeth & Rains, Scott, 2012. "The importance of farmer behaviour: an application of Desktop MAS, a multi-agent system model for rural New Zealand communities," 2012 Conference, August 31, 2012, Nelson, New Zealand, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society 136070, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  3. Happe, Kathrin, 2005. "Agent-Based Modelling and Sensitivity Analysis by Experimental Design and Metamodelling: An Application to Modelling Regional Structural Change," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark, European Association of Agricultural Economists 24464, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  4. Lobianco, Antonello & Roberto, Esposti, 2006. "The regional model for Mediterranean agriculture," MPRA Paper 1181, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Lobianco, Antonello & Roberto, Esposti, 2006. "Analysis of the impact of decoupling on two Mediterranean regions," MPRA Paper 1182, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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