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Housing Market Fluctuations in a Life-Cycle Economy with Credit Constraints

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Author Info
Francois Ortalo-Magne (London School of Economics)
Sven Rady (Graduate School of Business, Stanford University)

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Abstract

This paper presents a first step towards a new theory of housing market fluctuations. We develop a life-cycle model where agents face credit constraints and their housing consumption is restricted to a discrete set of possibilities. The market interaction of young credit constrained agents climbing the property ladder with old agents trading down, generates co-movements of aggregate house prices, volume of transactions and income, consistent with the patterns observed in the U.S. and the U.K. Under plausible assumptions, the model reproduces the slight lead of transaction volume over the other two series as documented in the data. Our theory asserts that the fluctuations in housing prices depend crucially on fluctuations in the current income of young households (the first-time buyers). Thus, it sheds light on why housing prices are more volatile than GDP, and why they exhibit some degree of predictability in a market where households optimize over the timing of their transactions.

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File URL: http://129.3.20.41/eps/fin/papers/9810/9810003.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Finance with number 9810003.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 22 Oct 1998
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpfi:9810003

Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; prepared on PC; pages: 36 ; figures: included
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Web page: http://129.3.20.41

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Related research
Keywords: Housing Demand; Income Fluctuations; Overlapping Generations; Collateral Constraint;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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  1. Basant Kapur, 2006. "Financial liberalization and short-run housing price dynamics," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 649-675, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Grace Wong, 2004. "Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 867, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  3. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Nan-Kuang Chen, 2005. "Intrinsic Cycles of Land Price: A Simple Model," Discussion Papers 00005, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Sang-Wook Stanley Cho, 2007. "Accounting for Lifecycle Wealth Accumulation: The Role of Housing Institution," Discussion Papers 2007-27, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  5. Joseph B. Nichols, 2007. "Nominal mortgage contracts and the effects of inflation on portfolio allocation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Gary Engelhardt, 2001. "Nominal Loss Aversion, Housing Equity Constraints, and Household Mobility: Evidence from the United States," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 42, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
  7. John Abowd & Charles Mulvey, 1979. "Estimating the Union-Non-union Wage Differential: A Statistical Issue," Working Papers 488, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  8. Scott, A. & Uhlig, H., 1998. "Fickle investors : an impediment to growth?," Discussion Paper 134, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Dandan Feng, 2004. "Testing Alternative Theories of Property Price-Trading Volume with Commercial Real Estate Market Data," Discussion Papers 00003, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Sang-Wook Stanley Cho, 2007. "Household Wealth Accumulation and Portfolio Choices in Korea," Discussion Papers 2007-26, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charles Leung & Dandan Feng, 2005. "What Drives the Property Price-Trading Volume Correlation? Evidence from a Commercial Real Estate Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 241-255, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "Credit constraints and housing markets in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/11, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  13. Grace Wong, 2004. "Has SARS Infected the Property Market? Evidence from Hong Kong," Working Papers 11, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section.. [Downloadable!]
  14. Joseph Nichols, 2004. "A Life-cycle Model with Housing, Portfolio Allocation, and Mortgage Financing," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 205, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  15. Michael Fratantoni & Scott Schuh, 2000. "Monetary policy, housing investment, and heterogeneous regional markets," Working Papers 00-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  16. Francois Ortalo-Magne & Sven Rady, 2001. "Housing Market Dynamics: On the Contribution of Income Shocks and Credit Constraints," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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