IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wop/stanec/00017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Quantative Exploration of the Role of Short-Term Domestic Debit in Balance of Payments Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Kumhof

Abstract

October 2000 The quantitative implications of a model of balance of payments crises are explored. The model analyzes government sterilization of capital outflows through low interest rates on domestic debt. This prevents a collapse in money demand but instead leads to a collapse in bond demand and therefore an increase in central bank domestic credit. The theory's implications are consistent with the Mexican experience of 1994, but much less so with Indonesia in 1997 and Brazil in 1998. Keywords: intellectual property rights, copyright, sui generis protection of expressive material, economics of information-goods, open science, "fair use," scientific databases. JEL Classification: H4, K39, O31, O34 -->

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Kumhof, "undated". "A Quantative Exploration of the Role of Short-Term Domestic Debit in Balance of Payments Crises," Working Papers 00017, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:00017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-econ.stanford.edu/faculty/workp/swp00017.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    7. Mr. Steven Riess Weisbrod & Ms. Liliana Rojas-Suárez, 1995. "Financial Fragilities in Latin America: The 1980s and 1990s," IMF Occasional Papers 1995/012, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carlos A. Végh, 1990. "Interest Rate Policy in a Small Open Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(4), pages 753-776, December.
    9. Bansal, Ravi & Coleman, Wilbur John, II, 1996. "A Monetary Explanation of the Equity Premium, Term Premium, and Risk-Free Rate Puzzles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1135-1171, December.
    10. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    11. Donald W. K. Andrews & C. John McDermott, 1995. "Nonlinear Econometric Models with Deterministically Trending Variables," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 62(3), pages 343-360.
    12. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
    13. Mr. Guillermo Calvo & Mr. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1990. "Interest Rate Targeting in a Small Open Economy: The Predetermined Exchange Rates Case," IMF Working Papers 1990/021, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Diaz-Gimenez, Javier & Prescott, Edward C. & Fitzgerald, Terry & Alvarez, Fernando, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 533-559.
    15. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-357, April.
    16. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M. & Kramer, Charles, 1996. "Collapsing exchange rate regimes: Another linear example," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 223-234, November.
    17. Salant, Stephen W & Henderson, Dale W, 1978. "Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 627-648, August.
    18. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1996. "Efficient Estimation of Linear Asset-Pricing Models with Moving Average Errors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 53-68, January.
    19. Velasco, Andres, 1987. "Financial crises and balance of payments crises : A simple model of the southern cone experience," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 263-283, October.
    20. Fernando Alvarez & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1992. "Banking in computable general equilibrium economies: technical appendices I and II," Staff Report 155, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    21. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
    22. Kamin, Steven B. & Rogers, John H., 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 285-307, November.
    23. Garcia, Marcio G. P. & Barcinski, Alexandre, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil in the Nineties: Macroeconomic Aspects and the Effectiveness of Capital Controls," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 1), pages 319-357.
    24. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1983. "The Effects of Inflation on Real Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 968-980, December.
    25. Calvo, Guillermo A & Vegh, Carlos A, 1995. "Fighting Inflation with High Interest Rates: The Small Open Economy Case under Flexible Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(1), pages 49-66, February.
    26. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1987. "Balance of Payments Crises in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 19(1), pages 19-32, February.
    27. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumhof, Michael, 2000. "A quantitative exploration of the role of short-term domestic debt in balance of payments crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 195-215, June.
    2. Piersanti, Giovanni, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199653126.
    3. Kumhof, Michael, 2004. "Sterilization of short-term capital inflows--through lower interest rates?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(7-8), pages 1209-1221.
    4. Prof.Dr. Cevat GERNI & Doc.Dr. O. Selcuk EMSEN & Dr. M. Kemal DEGER, 2005. "Erken Uyari Sistemlerý Yoluyla Turkiye’Deki Ekonomik Krizlerin Analizi," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 2(1), pages 39-62, November.
    5. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614, Elsevier.
    6. Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2012. "Models of Speculative Attacks and Crashes in International Capital Markets," CEIS Research Paper 245, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Jul 2012.
    7. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 2006. "When Is It Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate?," NBER Working Papers 12793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Reuven Glick & Michael M. Hutchison, 1999. "Banking and currency crises; how common are twins?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    9. Croitoru, Lucian, 2013. "Liquidity, the October 2008 Speculative Attack and the Central Bank Reputation," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-51, June.
    10. Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Mr. Yuri V Sobolev, 2000. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization: A Model of Financial Fragility," IMF Working Papers 2000/122, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Rakesh Padhan & K. P. Prabheesh, 2019. "Effectiveness Of Early Warning Models: A Critical Review And New Agenda For Future Direction," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 22(4), pages 457-484, December.
    13. Mundaca, Gabriela, 2003. "Optimal bailout during currency and financial crises: A sequential game analysis," Memorandum 27/2002, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    14. Mohammad Karimi & Marcel‐Cristian Voia, 2019. "Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(3), pages 428-449, July.
    15. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    16. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2004. "Government guarantees and self-fulfilling speculative attacks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 31-63, November.
    17. Ahec Šonje, Amina & Babić, Ante, 2002. "Measuring and predicting currency disturbances in Croatia: the “signals” approach," MPRA Paper 83137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2002.
    18. Ryota Nakatani, 2016. "Twin Banking and Currency Crises and Monetary Policy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 747-767, September.
    19. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Végh, 2008. "When is it Optimal to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate? -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 75(3), pages 929-955.
    20. Sweta Saxena & Kar-yiu Wong, 1999. "Currency Crises and Capital Control: A Survey," Working Papers 0045, University of Washington, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    intellectual property rights; copyright; sui generis protection of expressive material; economics of information-goods; open science;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • K39 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Other
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wop:stanec:00017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thomas Krichel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/destaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.