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Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001

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  • Jacques Poot

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

  • Bill Cochrane

    (University of Waikato)

  • Sandra Baxendine

    (Waikato District Health Board)

Abstract

Over the last two decades New Zealand has undergone fundamental economic restructuring, and phases of slow and rapid growth, which have resulted in some dramatic changes in the regional economies. This paper provides a detailed multiperiod shift-share analysis over three intercensal periods between 1986 and 2001 on changes in regional employment outcomes at two levels of spatial disaggregation: 29 Administrative Regions (ARs), based on Regional Council areas, and 58 Labour Market Areas (LMAs) that have economically meaningful (commuting determined) boundaries. The contributions to employment outcomes of national trends, sectoral composition within regions, structural change, and local conditions are identified. A four-category disaggregation of regional employment into sex, age,occupation industry is also undertaken. The results show a dichotomy between metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, but also several distinct clusters among the latter. Regional competitive advantage is clearly linked with net inward migration. There is also evidence of significantly positive spatial autocorrelation in the competitive effect. Local indicators of spatial association help to identify regions that stand out in terms of being surrounded by similar regions, or by regions that are just the opposite, in terms of the competitive effect. Interestingly, regional population growth precedes the competitive component of employment growth rather than just being a symptom of it.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/pscdps/dp-57.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre in its series Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers with number dp-57.

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Length: 72 pages
Date of creation: 21 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:pscdps:dp-57

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Keywords: Shift-Share Analysis; Cluster Analysis; Regional Competitiveness; Migration; Spatial Correlation;

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References

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  1. Knudsen, Daniel C., 2000. "Shift-share analysis: further examination of models for the description of economic change," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 177-198, September.
  2. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Spatial Heterogeneity and the Wage Curve Revisited," ERSA conference papers ersa04p115, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Viv. B Hall & McDermott C. John, 2004. "Regional Business Cycles in New Zealand: Do they exist? What might drive them?," ERSA conference papers ersa04p200, European Regional Science Association.
  4. Wai Kin Choy & David C Mare & Peter Mawson, 2002. "Modelling Regional Labour Market Adjustment in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/01, New Zealand Treasury.
  5. Papps, Kerry L. & Newell, James O., 2002. "Identifying Functional Labour Market Areas in New Zealand: A Reconnaissance Study Using Travel-to-Work Data," IZA Discussion Papers 443, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  6. J. M. Casado-Diaz, 2000. "Local Labour Market Areas in Spain: A Case Study," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 843-856.
  7. Gordon F. Mulligan & Andreas Molin, 2004. "Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 113-130, 03.
  8. Esteban-Marquillas, J. M., 1972. "I. A reinterpretation of shift-share analysis," Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 249-255, October.
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