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Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model

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  • Gordon F. Mulligan
  • Andreas Molin

Abstract

Shift-share analysis is an accounting procedure that identifies three separate effects for regional employment change. But the analysis is ordinarily restricted to only one category: usually, industry employment. This paper presents a new shift-share model that simultaneously addresses both occupation employment and industry employment. Community-level occupation-in-industry employment effects (both mix and competitive) occurring in the 1980s are then used to estimate population change in the 1990s. Separate estimates are given for two data sets comprised of different-sized non-metropolitan U.S. communities – small towns and micropolitan centers. This expanded two-category model is shown to generate estimates that are clearly superior to those of the traditional one-category model. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

Suggested Citation

  • Gordon F. Mulligan & Andreas Molin, 2004. "Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 38(1), pages 113-130, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:38:y:2004:i:1:p:113-130
    DOI: 10.1007/s00168-003-0139-8
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon F. Mulligan, 2023. "Economic vulnerability in US metropolitan areas," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 70(1), pages 29-53, February.
    2. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Te Ngira Institute for Population Research.
    3. IORDAN Marioara & GRIGORESCU Adriana & CHILIAN Mihaela-Nona, 2013. "Sub-Regional Disparities In Romania - The Case Of The Centru Region," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 102-117.
    4. Shu‐hen Chiang, 2012. "The sources of metropolitan unemployment fluctuations in the Greater Taipei metropolitan area," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 91(4), pages 775-793, November.
    5. Mihaela-Nona Chilian, 2011. "Evolution of Regional Disparities in Romania – A Shift-share Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p827, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Chilian, Mihaela Nona, 2012. "Evolution of Regional and Sub-Regional Disparities in Romania – A Sectoral Shift-Share Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 187-204, March.
    7. Shu-hen Chiang, 2016. "Rising residential rents in Chinese mega cities: The role of monetary policy," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(16), pages 3493-3509, December.
    8. Kingsley E. Haynes & Jitendra Parajuli, 2014. "Shift-share analysis: decomposition of spatially integrated systems," Chapters, in: Robert Stimson (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Spatially Integrated Social Science, chapter 16, pages 315-344, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    R11; R12;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

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