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Estimating population change with a two-category shift-share model

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Author Info

  • Gordon F. Mulligan

    ()

  • Andreas Molin

    ()

Abstract

Shift-share analysis is an accounting procedure that identifies three separate effects for regional employment change. But the analysis is ordinarily restricted to only one category: usually, industry employment. This paper presents a new shift-share model that simultaneously addresses both occupation employment and industry employment. Community-level occupation-in-industry employment effects (both mix and competitive) occurring in the 1980s are then used to estimate population change in the 1990s. Separate estimates are given for two data sets comprised of different-sized non-metropolitan U.S. communities – small towns and micropolitan centers. This expanded two-category model is shown to generate estimates that are clearly superior to those of the traditional one-category model. Copyright Springer-Verlag 2004

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s00168-003-0139-8
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Annals of Regional Science.

Volume (Year): 38 (2004)
Issue (Month): 1 (03)
Pages: 113-130

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Handle: RePEc:spr:anresc:v:38:y:2004:i:1:p:113-130

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Related research

Keywords: R11; R12;

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Cited by:
  1. Mihaela-Nona Chilian, 2011. "Evolution of Regional Disparities in Romania – A Shift-share Analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa11p827, European Regional Science Association.
  2. IORDAN Marioara & GRIGORESCU Adriana & CHILIAN Mihaela-Nona, 2013. "Sub-Regional Disparities In Romania - The Case Of The Centru Region," Revista Economica, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 65(5), pages 102-117.
  3. Chilian, Mihaela Nona, 2012. "Evolution of Regional and Sub-Regional Disparities in Romania – A Sectoral Shift-Share Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 187-204, March.
  4. Jacques Poot & Bill Cochrane & Sandra Baxendine, 2005. "Description and Spatial Analysis of Employment Change in New Zealand Regions 1986-2001," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-57, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre.

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