Classic and Spatial Shift-Share Analysis of State-Level Employment Change in Brazil
AbstractThis paper combines classic and spatial shift-share decompositions of 1981 to 2006 employment change across the 27 states of Brazil. The classic shift-share method shows higher employment growth rates for underdeveloped regions that are due to an advantageous industry-mix and also due to additional job creation, commonly referred to as the competitive effect. Alternative decompositions proposed in the literature do not change this broad conclusion. Further examination employing exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) shows spatial correlation of both the industry-mix and the competitive effects. Considering that until the 1960s economic activities were more concentrated in southern regions of Brazil than they are nowadays, these results support beta convergence theories but also find evidence of agglomeration effects. Additionally, a very simple spatial decomposition is proposed that accounts for the spatially-weighted growth of surrounding states. Favourable growth in northern and centre-western states is basically associated with those states’ strengths in potential spatial spillover effect and in spatial competitive effect.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 12/08.
Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
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More information through EDIRC
regional employment; shift-share analysis; spatial autocorrelation; spatial spillovers; Brazil;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
- O18 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
- N66 - Economic History - - Manufacturing and Construction - - - Latin America; Caribbean
- R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-07-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-GEO-2012-07-29 (Economic Geography)
- NEP-URE-2012-07-29 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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