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Classic and Spatial Shift-Share Analysis of State-Level Employment Change in Brazil

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Author Info

  • Valente J. Matlaba

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

  • Mark Holmes

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

  • Philip McCann

    ()
    (University of Groningen)

  • Jacques Poot

    ()
    (University of Waikato)

Abstract

This paper combines classic and spatial shift-share decompositions of 1981 to 2006 employment change across the 27 states of Brazil. The classic shift-share method shows higher employment growth rates for underdeveloped regions that are due to an advantageous industry-mix and also due to additional job creation, commonly referred to as the competitive effect. Alternative decompositions proposed in the literature do not change this broad conclusion. Further examination employing exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) shows spatial correlation of both the industry-mix and the competitive effects. Considering that until the 1960s economic activities were more concentrated in southern regions of Brazil than they are nowadays, these results support beta convergence theories but also find evidence of agglomeration effects. Additionally, a very simple spatial decomposition is proposed that accounts for the spatially-weighted growth of surrounding states. Favourable growth in northern and centre-western states is basically associated with those states’ strengths in potential spatial spillover effect and in spatial competitive effect.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/1208.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 12/08.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:12/08

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Keywords: regional employment; shift-share analysis; spatial autocorrelation; spatial spillovers; Brazil;

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  1. Robert Q. Hanham, 2000. "Shift-Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 31(1), pages 108-123.
  2. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 1998. "The Brazilian economy, 1928-1945," Textos para discussão 388, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  3. Daumal, Marie & Zignago, Soledad, 2010. "Measure and determinants of border effects of Brazilian states," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7446, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Matías Mayor & Ana López, 2008. "Spatial shift-share analysis versus spatial filtering: an application to Spanish employment data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 123-142, February.
  5. Selting, Anne C. & Loveridge, Scott, 1994. "Testing Dynamic Shift-Share," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 24(1).
  6. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 2005. "The Brazilian economy, 1980-1994," Textos para discussão 492, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  7. Gondim Nogueira, Cláudio André & Feitosa Lopes, Daniel Alisson, 2008. "Employment growth in Ceara: a shift-share analysis (2000-2005)," MPRA Paper 15882, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu, 2000. "The Brazilian economy, 1928-1980," Textos para discussão 432, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  9. Knudsen, Daniel C., 2000. "Shift-share analysis: further examination of models for the description of economic change," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 177-198, September.
  10. Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2002. "Regional development of employment in eastern Germany. An analysis with an econometric analogue to shift-share techniques," ERSA conference papers ersa02p263, European Regional Science Association.
  11. Esteban-Marquillas, J. M., 1972. "I. A reinterpretation of shift-share analysis," Regional and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 249-255, October.
  12. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-99, June.
  13. Suahasil Nazara & Geoffrey J.D. Hewings, 2004. "Spatial Structure and Taxonomy of Decomposition in Shift-Share Analysis," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 35(4), pages 476-490.
  14. Corinne Autant-Bernard & Jacques Mairesse & Nadine Massard, 2007. "Spatial knowledge diffusion through collaborative networks," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 86(3), pages 341-350, 08.
  15. G Fotopoulos & N Spence, 1999. "Spatial variations in net entry rates of establihments in Greek manufacturing industries: an application of the shift-share ANOVA model," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 31(10), pages 1731-1755, October.
  16. McCann, Philip, 2001. "Urban and Regional Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198776451, September.
  17. Julie Le Gallo & Yiannis Kamarianakis, 2011. "The Evolution of Regional Productivity Disparities in the European Union from 1975 to 2002: A Combination of Shift-Share and Spatial Econometrics," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 123-139.
  18. Guilherme Mendes Resende, 2011. "Multiple dimensions of regional economic growth: The Brazilian case, 1991−2000," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 90(3), pages 629-662, 08.
  19. G�ran Therborn & K.C. Ho, 2009. "Introduction," City, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 53-62, March.
  20. Georgios Fotopoulos & Dimitris Kallioras & George Petrakos, 2010. "Spatial variations of Greek manufacturing employment growth: The effects of specialization and international trade," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(1), pages 109-133, 03.
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