Filtering and Forecasting Spot Electricity Prices in the Increasingly Deregulated Australian Electricity Market
AbstractModelling and forecasting the volatile spot pricing process for electricity presents a number of challenges. For increasingly deregulated electricity markets, like that in the Australian state of New South Wales, there is need to price a range of derivative securities used for hedging. Any derivative pricing model that hopes to capture the pricing dynamics within this market must be able to cope with the extreme volatility of the observed spot prices. By applying wavelet analysis, we examine both the price and demand series at different time locations and levels of resolution to reveal and differentiate what is signal and what is noise. Further, we cleanse the data of leakage from the high frequency, mean reverting price spikes into the more fundamental levels of frequency resolution. As it is from these levels that we base the reconstruction of our filtered series, we need to ensure they are least contaminated by noise. Using the filtered data, we explore time series models as possible candidates for explaining the pricing process and evaluate their forecasting ability. These models include one from the threshold autoregressive (AR) model. What we find is that models from the TAR class produce forecasts that best appear to capture the mean and variance components of the actual data.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 63.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2001
Date of revision:
electricity; wavelets; time series models; forecasting;
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1997. "A threshold autoregressive analysis of stock returns and real economic activity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 167-179.
- L. C. G. Rogers & S. E. Satchell, 2000. "Does the behaviour of the asset tell us anything about the option price formula? A cautionary tale," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 37-39.
- Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
- Ramsey James B. & Lampart Camille, 1998. "The Decomposition of Economic Relationships by Time Scale Using Wavelets: Expenditure and Income," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, April.
- Bhardwaj, Ravinder K & Brooks, LeRoy D, 1993. "Dual Betas from Bull and Bear Markets: Reversal of the Size Effect," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 16(4), pages 269-83, Winter.
- Wiggins, James B, 1992. "Betas in Up and Down Markets," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 27(1), pages 107-23, February.
- Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013.
"Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling,"
Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
- Janczura, Joanna & Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2012. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," MPRA Paper 39277, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafał, 2013.
"Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices,"
Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 13-27.
- Jakub Nowotarski & Jakub Tomczyk & Rafal Weron, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/12/06, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Nowotarski, Jakub & Tomczyk, Jakub & Weron, Rafal, 2012. "Robust estimation and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of electricity spot prices," MPRA Paper 42563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Trueck, Stefan & Weron, Rafal & Wolff, Rodney, 2007. "Outlier Treatment and Robust Approaches for Modeling Electricity Spot Prices," MPRA Paper 4711, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Rafal Weron, 2005. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options," Econometrics 0502003, EconWPA.
- kevin dowd & john cotter, 2011.
"U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis,"
- repec:ntu:ntugeo:vol2-iss1-14-042 is not listed on IDEAS
- Arciniegas, Alvaro I. & Arciniegas Rueda, Ismael E., 2008. "Forecasting short-term power prices in the Ontario Electricity Market (OEM) with a fuzzy logic based inference system," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-48, March.
- Weron, Rafal, 2008. "Market price of risk implied by Asian-style electricity options and futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 1098-1115, May.
- Talk:Intermittent energy source/Archive 1 in Wikipedia English ne '')
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Duncan Ford).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.