Modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component of the EEX and Nord Pool spot prices
AbstractWe present the results of an extensive study on modeling and forecasting of the long-term seasonal component (LTSC) of electricity spot prices. We consider a vast array of models including linear regressions, monthly dummies, sinusoidal decompositions and wavelet smoothers. We find that in terms of forecasting EEX and Nord Pool spot prices up to a year ahead, wavelet-based models significantly outperform all considered piecewise constant and sine-based models. This result challenges the traditional approach to deseasonalize spot electricity prices by fitting monthly dummies or sinusoidal functions.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology in its series HSC Research Reports with number HSC/13/02.
Length: 9 pages
Date of creation: 15 Feb 2013
Date of revision:
Electricity spot price; Forecasting; Seasonality; Monthly dummies; Sinusoidal decomposition; Wavelets;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
- Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-03-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENE-2013-03-02 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-FOR-2013-03-02 (Forecasting)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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