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Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations

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  • Serena Sordi
  • Alessandro Vercelli

Abstract

We examine the role of expectations in a model aimed to explain financial fluctuations. The model restates the core of Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis, focusing on the role of expectations. The hypotheses concerning the process of formation and revision of expectations are discussed in light of Keynes’s epistemological view of the behaviour of boundedly rational agents under conditions of strong uncertainty. These hypotheses are formalized by drawing on recent advances in complex dynamics, decision theory and behavioural economics. We show that widespread use of extrapolative expectations by economic agents produces a high degree of financial instability that may lead to a serious financial crisis, and that the use by economic agents of a mix of extrapolative and regressive expectations reduces the dynamical instability of the model but may give rise to complex dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Serena Sordi & Alessandro Vercelli, 2010. "Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 1010, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    • Handle: RePEc:usi:depfid:1010
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    Cited by:

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    2. Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Sordi, Serena, 2019. "Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 216-233.
    3. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2021. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1157-1188, September.
    4. Filippo Gusella & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2021. "Testing fundamentalist–momentum trader financial cycles: An empirical analysis via the Kalman filter," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 758-797, November.
    5. Andre R. Neveu, 2018. "A survey of network-based analysis and systemic risk measurement," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 13(2), pages 241-281, July.
    6. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    7. Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2014. "Unemployment, income distribution and debt-financed investment in a growth cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 325-348.
    8. Marwil Jhonatan Dávila Fernádez & José Luis Oreiro, 2016. "Capital In The Twenty First Century: Reinterpretando A Contradição Fundamental Do Capitalismo," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 096, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    9. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Adam B. Barrett, 2017. "Stability of zero-growth economics analysed with a Minskyan model," Papers 1704.08161, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2017.
    11. Chen, Zhenxi & Lien, Donald & Lin, Yaheng, 2021. "Sentiment: The bridge between financial markets and macroeconomy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1177-1190.
    12. Passarella, Marco, 2011. "From the village fair to Wall Street. The Italian reception of Minsky’s economic thought," MPRA Paper 49593, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Giansante, Simone & Chiarella, Carl & Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Structural contagion and vulnerability to unexpected liquidity shortfalls," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 558-569.
    14. Alessia Cafferata & Marwil J. Dávila-Fernández & Serena Sordi, 2020. "(Ir)rational explorers in the financial jungle: modelling Minsky with heterogeneous agents," Department of Economics University of Siena 819, Department of Economics, University of Siena.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial instability; heterogeneous expectations; extrapolative expectations; regressive expectations; complex dynamics.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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