Nonlinear Expectation Formation, Endogenous Business Cycles and Stylized Facts
AbstractWe modify Samuelsons multiplier-accelerator model to explore the influence of expectations on fluctuations in economic activity. Within our model, the agents use a nonlinear mix of extrapolative and regressive forecast rules to predict the output. Our model is able to mimic some generic features of business cycles. In particular, consumption is procyclical and fluctuates less than output while investment is procyclical and fluctuates more than output.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.
Volume (Year): 10 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Day, Richard H. & Huang, Weihong, 1990.
"Bulls, bears and market sheep,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 299-329, December.
- Hommes, Cars H., 1995. "A reconsideration of Hicks' non-linear trade cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 435-459, December.
- Sonnemans, Joep & Hommes, Cars & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2004.
"The instability of a heterogeneous cobweb economy: a strategy experiment on expectation formation,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 453-481, August.
- Sonnemans, J. & Hommes, C.H. & Tuinstra, J. & van de Velden, H., 1999. "The Instability of a Heterogeneous Cobweb economy: a Strategy Experiment on Expectation Formation," CeNDEF Working Papers 99-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- John Foster & Burkhard Flieth, 2002. "Interactive expectations," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 375-395.
- Ito, Takatoshi, 1990.
"Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 434-49, June.
- Takatoshi Ito, 1990. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Micro Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 2679, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hohnisch, Martin & Pittnauer, Sabine & Solomon, Sorin & Stauffer, Dietrich, 2005. "Socioeconomic interaction and swings in business confidence indicators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 646-656.
- Giorgio Rodano & Gian Italo Bischi & Enrico Saltari & Roberto Dieci, 2001. "Multiple attractors and global bifurcations in a Kaldor-type business cycle model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 11(5), pages 527-554.
- Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
- Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
- Serena Sordi & Alessandro Vercelli, 2010.
"Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations,"
Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena
1010, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
- Sordi, Serena & Vercelli, Alessandro, 2012. "Heterogeneous expectations and strong uncertainty in a Minskyian model of financial fluctuations," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 544-557.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.