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A general multivariate threshold GARCH model with dynamic conditional correlations

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  • Fabio Trojani

    ()

  • Francesco Audrino

Abstract

We propose a new multivariate DCC-GARCH model that extends existing approaches by admitting multivariate thresholds in conditional volatilities and conditional correlations. Model estimation is numerically feasible in large dimensions and positive semi-definiteness of conditional covariance matrices is naturally ensured by the pure model structure. Conditional thresholds in volatilities and correlations are estimated from the data, together with all other model parameters. We study the performance of our approach in some Monte Carlo simulations, where it is shown that the model is able to fit correctly a GARCH-type dynamics and a complex threshold structure in conditional volatilities and correlations of simulated data. In a real data application to international equity markets, we observe estimated conditional volatilities that are strongly influenced by GARCH-type and multivariate threshold effects. Conditional correlations, instead, are determined by simple threshold structures where no GARCH-type effect could be identified.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen in its series University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 with number 2005-04.

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Length: 41 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2005
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Handle: RePEc:usg:dp2005:2005-04

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  9. Andersen T. G & Bollerslev T. & Diebold F. X & Labys P., 2001. "The Distribution of Realized Exchange Rate Volatility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 42-55, March.
  10. Engle, Robert F & Sheppard, Kevin K, 2001. "Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5s2218dp, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
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  14. Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2007. "Realized Correlation Tick-by-Tick," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2007 2007-02, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  15. Audrino, Francesco, 2006. "Tree-Structured Multiple Regimes in Interest Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 338-353, July.
  16. Fabio Trojani & Francesco Audrino, 2006. "Estimating and predicting multivariate volatility thresholds in global stock markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 345-369.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Fulvio Corsi & Francesco Audrino, 2008. "Modeling Tick-by-Tick Realized Correlations," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-05, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  2. Jeroen V.K. Rombouts & Lars Stentoft & Francesco Violante, 2012. "The Value of Multivariate Model Sophistication: An Application to pricing Dow Jones Industrial Average options," CREATES Research Papers 2012-04, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. Audrino, Francesco, 2011. "Forecasting correlations during the late-2000s financial crisis: short-run component, long-run component, and structural breaks," Economics Working Paper Series 1112, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  4. Chia-Lin Chang & Michael McAleer & Roengchai Tansuchat, 2009. "Modelling Conditional Correlations for Risk Diversification in Crude Oil Markets," CARF F-Series CARF-F-162, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  5. Boudt, Kris & Daníelsson, Jón & Laurent, Sébastien, 2013. "Robust forecasting of dynamic conditional correlation GARCH models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 244-257.

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