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Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects

Author

Listed:
  • Paolo Gorgi

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

We consider a general class of observation-driven models with exogenous regressors for double bounded data that are based on the beta distribution. We obtain a stationary and ergodic beta observation-driven process subject to a contraction condition on the stochastic dynamic model equation. We derive conditions for strong consistency and asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator. The general results are used to study the properties of a beta autoregressive process with threshold effects and to establish the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator. We employ the threshold autoregressive model with leverage effects to analyze realized correlations for several sets of stock returns. We find that the impact of past values of realized correlation on future values is at least 10% higher when stock returns are negative rather than positive. This finding supports the conjecture that correlation between stock returns tends to be higher when stock prices are falling, and lower when there is a surge in stock prices. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample study that shows that our model with leverage effects can enhance the accuracy of point and density forecasts of realized correlations.

Suggested Citation

  • Paolo Gorgi & Siem Jan Koopman, 2020. "Beta observation-driven models with exogenous regressors: a joint analysis of realized correlation and leverage effects," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-004/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:tin:wpaper:20200004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Konstantinos Gkillas & Christoforos Konstantatos & Costas Siriopoulos, 2021. "Uncertainty Due to Infectious Diseases and Stock–Bond Correlation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-18, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Double bounded time series; financial econometrics; leverage effects; observation- driven models; realized correlation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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