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Can Flexible Exchange Rates Still “Work” In Financially Open Economies?

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  • Ilan GOLDFAJN
  • Gino OLIVARES
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    Abstract

    Recent studies have shown that exchange rates in developing countries have limited flexibility. In this paper we review the existing explanations for this stylized fact, using a simple framework of monetary policy in a world where firms face balance sheet effects and the economy has a high pass-through from depreciation to inflation. We estimate a panel regression using quarterly data in the period 1990–1999 for a sample of 46 countries (19 industrial and 27 developing), and find that the use of the exchange rate to buffer external shocks depends crucially on (i) on the degree of integration with capital markets, and (ii) the quality of external financing. We conclude that flexible regimes are viable in financially open economies, provided external financing is not based on very volatile capital. This, of course, is dependent on the establishment of credible macroeconomic policies.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by United Nations Conference on Trade and Development in its series G-24 Discussion Papers with number 8.

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    Date of creation: 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:unc:g24pap:8

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mishkin, F.S., 1998. "International Experiences with Different Monetary Policy Regimes," Papers 648, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2001. "Hedging and financial fragility in fixed exchange rate regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1151-1193.
    4. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Policy Rules and External Shocks," NBER Working Papers 7910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 99/42, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    7. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
    9. A Alesina & V Grilli & G Milesi-Feretti, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEP Discussion Papers dp0169, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    10. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
    11. Andres Velasco & Roberto Chang, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Policy for Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 71-75, May.
    12. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Reinhart, Carmen, 2000. "The mirage of floating exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Alesina, Alberto F & Grilli, Vittorio & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 1993. "The Political Economy of Capital Controls," CEPR Discussion Papers 793, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Research Department Publications 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," IDB Publications 6467, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Vittorio Grilli & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 1995. "Economic Effects and Structural Determinants of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 517-551, September.
    18. Frankel, Jeffrey & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Serven, Luis, 2004. "Global transmission of interest rates: monetary independence and currency regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 701-733, September.
    19. repec:fth:inadeb:418 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
    21. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "Dollarization of Liabilities: Underinsurance and Domestic Financial Underdevelopment," NBER Working Papers 7792, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:
    1. Carrera, Jorge Eduardo & Cicowiez, Martín & Lacunza, Hernán & Saavedra, Marcelo, 2005. "Interdependencia y regímenes cambiarios en Mercosur: un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio general computado para su medición
      [Interdependence under different exchange rate regimes in the Merco
      ," MPRA Paper 7845, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
    2. Goo, Siwei & Siregar, Reza Y. Siregar, 2009. "Economic Shocks and Exchange Rate as a Shock Absorber in Indonesia and Thailand," MPRA Paper 16875, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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