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Monetary policy and the currency denomination of debt: a tale of two equilibria

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  • Roberto Chang
  • Andres Velasco

Abstract

Exchange rate policies depend on portfolio choices, and portfolio choices depend on anticipated exchange rate policies. This opens the door to multiple equilibria in policy regimes. We construct a model in which agents optimally choose to denominate their assets and liabilities either in domestic or in foreign currency. The monetary authority optimally chooses to float or to fix the currency, after portfolios have been chosen. We identify conditions under which both fixing and floating are equilibrium policies: if agents expect fixing and arrange their portfolios accordingly, the monetary authority validates that expectation; the same happens if agents initially expect floating. We also show that a flexible exchange rate Pareto-dominates a fixed one. It follows that social welfare would rise if the monetary authority could precommit to floating.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2004-30.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2004-30

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Foreign exchange;

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  1. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2002. "Self-validating optimum currency areas," Staff Reports 152, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  2. Chari, V V & Kehoe, Patrick J, 1990. "Sustainable Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 783-802, August.
  3. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  5. Eduardo Moron & Juan F. Castro, 2003. "Dedollarizing the Peruvian Economy," Macroeconomics 0312005, EconWPA.
  6. Philippe AGHION & Philippe BACCHETTA & Abhijit BANERJEE, 1999. "A Simple Model of Monetary Policy and Currency Crises," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9914, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  7. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Exchange Rate Volatility and the Credit Channel in Emerging Markets: A Vertical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
  8. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71, pages 883-913, 07.
  9. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," Research Department Publications 4170, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  10. Stokey, Nancy L., 1991. "Credible public policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 627-656, October.
  11. Alain Ize & Eric Parrado, 2002. "Dollarization, Monetary Policy, and the Pass-Through," IMF Working Papers 02/188, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
  13. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  14. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
  15. Jeanne, Olivier, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 4030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Ricardo Hausmann & Michael Gavin & Carmen Pagés-Serra & Ernesto H. Stein, 1999. "Financial Turmoil and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime," IDB Publications 4128, Inter-American Development Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Franz Hamann & Julián Pérez & Paulina Restrepo, 2005. "On the Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt Substitution," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  2. Pelin Berkmen & Eduardo A. Cavallo, 2007. "Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 07/33, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Franz Hamann & Julián Pérez & Paulina Restrepo, . "Sobre los Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Composición de la Deuda Pública en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 332, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial Integration and the Wealth Effect of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 282, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Abdul Abiad & John C Bluedorn & Jaime Guajardo & Petia Topalova, 2012. "The Rising Resilience of Emerging Market and Developing Economies," IMF Working Papers 12/300, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Alain Ize, 2005. "Financial De-Dollarization," IMF Working Papers 05/187, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Enrique L. Kawamura & Daniel Heymann, 2005. "On Liability Dollarization: A Simple Model with Domestic and Foreign Creditors," Working Papers 80, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Feb 2005.
  8. Fiess, Norbert & Shankar, Rashmi, 2005. "Regime-switching in exchange rate policy and balance sheet effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3653, The World Bank.
  9. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2006. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the 2000s: A Latin American Perspective," Business School Working Papers exchangerate, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.

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