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On the Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt Substitution

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Author Info

  • Franz Hamann

    ()

  • Julián Pérez

    ()

  • Paulina Restrepo

    ()

Abstract

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the way in which a government finances its fiscal deficit in a small open economy. In particular, it focuses on the evaluation of the macroeconomic impact of a situation in which, given a fiscal deficit, the government decides whether to finance it with domestic or external debt. For this purpose a small open economy DSGE model is used. The model is calibrated to the colombian economy. The results depend on whether the substitution is transitory or permanent. The former has negligible macroeconomic effects, except for the impact on private capital flows (we call this a «portfolio effect»). An increase in the domestic public debt equally matched by a reduction in the external debt, is balanced by a reduction in private net foreign assets. On the contrary, a permanent substitution of 10% in the level of external public debt by domestic debt, has transitory but significant effects on the level of real economic activity and capital flows. Such a recomposition generates a 5% increase in net foreign assets (a capital outflow) along with a 1% nominal nominal depreciation. Although our results are quite general under flexible prices, we especulate that they may change in the presence of uncertainty about the sustainability of fiscal deficit and/or nominal and real rigidities.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:007495

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Related research

Keywords: fiscal policy; public debt composition; capital flows; Colombia.;

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References

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  1. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Henning Bohn, . "A Positive Theory of Foreign Currency Debt," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 19-88, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  3. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2005. "Financial Globalisation and Exchange Rates," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp044, IIIS.
  4. Claessens, Stijn & Klingebiel, Daniela & Schmukler, Sergio, 2003. "Government bonds in domestic and foreign currency: the role of macroeconomic and institutional factors," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2986, The World Bank.
  5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
  6. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2004. "Monetary policy and the currency denomination of debt: a tale of two equilibria," Working Paper Series 2004-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Wallace, Neil, 1981. "A Modigliani-Miller Theorem for Open-Market Operations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 267-74, June.
  8. Michael Kumhof & Shujing Li & Isabel Yan, . "Balance of Payments Crises Under Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 00020, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  9. Javier Gómez Pineda, 2004. "A Framework for Macroeconomic Stability in Emerging Market Economies," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001915, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  10. Olivier Jeanne, 2003. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow in Foreign Currency?," IMF Working Papers 03/177, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
  12. Santiago Gutiérrez V. & Michel Formisano P., 2003. "La culpa es del Yankee: Correlaciones e ineficiencias en el mercado de dinero," APUNTES DE BANCA Y FINANZAS 002959, ASOBANCARIA.
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