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What triggers inflation in emerging market economics?

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Author Info
Domac, Ilker
Yucel, Eray M.

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Abstract

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced a noticeable decline in inflation since the mid-1990s. Whether this stable price environment in EMEs is likely to endure and what kind of policies need to be followed to ensure price stability, however, still continue to be questions of considerable policy relevance. The authors investigate the factors associated with the start of 24 inflation episodes in 15 EMEs between 1980 and 2001. They use pooled probit analysis to estimate the contribution of the key factors to inflation starts. Their empirical results suggest that increases in the output gap, agricultural shocks, and expansionary fiscal policy raise the probability of inflation starts in EMEs. Their findings also indicate that a more democratic environment and an increase in capital flows relative to GDP reduce the probability of inflation starts.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3376.

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Date of creation: 01 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3376

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Keywords: Environmental Economics&Policies; Markets and Market Access; Banks&Banking Reform; Economic Theory&Research; Settlement of Investment Disputes; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Markets and Market Access; Access to Markets; Financial Intermediation;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
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    Other versions:
  4. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Luis Catão & Marco Terrones, 2001. "Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence," IMF Working Papers 01/74, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  16. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  17. Eva Gutierrez, 2003. "Inflation Performance and Constitutional Central Bank Independence: Evidence From Latin America and the Caribbean," IMF Working Papers 03/53, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ugur Ciplak & Eray M. Yucel, 2004. "Trade Protection Measures, Agricultural and Food Prices," Working Papers 0401, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
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