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What Starts Inflation: Evidence from the OECD Countries

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Author Info

  • Boschen, John F
  • Weise, Charles L

Abstract

We use a pooled cross-country time series framework to study the factors associated with the start of 73 inflation episodes in OECD countries since 1960. We find that policy-makers' pursuit of high real growth targets and national elections were important factors in initiating inflation episodes. U.S. inflation turns out to be a triggering event for simultaneous outbreaks of inflation across countries. Several other explanations for inflation starts, including increases in the natural rate of unemployment, oil price shocks, changes in the political orientation of governments, and government debt policy, are not supported by the data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 323-49

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Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:35:y:2003:i:3:p:323-49

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879

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Cited by:
  1. Ilker Domaç & Eray M. Yücel, 2005. "What Triggers Inflation in Emerging Market Economies?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 141-164, April.
  2. Lothian, James R. & McCarthy, Cornelia H., 2009. "The behavior of money and other economic variables: Two natural experiments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1204-1220, November.
  3. Romero-Ávila, Diego & Usabiaga, Carlos, 2009. "The hypothesis of a unit root in OECD inflation revisited," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 153-161.
  4. Bernard Laurens & Martin Sommer & Marco Arnone & Jean-François Segalotto, 2007. "Central Bank Autonomy," IMF Working Papers 07/88, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Christopher Bowdler & Luca Nunziata, 2004. "A note on the determinants of inflation starts in the OECD," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-W11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  6. Charles Weise, 2004. "Alternative explanations for US inflation performance, 1961-2000," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 111, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  7. Mosayeb PAHLAVANI & Mohammad RAHIMI, 2009. "Sources of Inflation in Iran: An application of the ARDL Approach," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
  8. Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2009. "What Triggers Prolonged Inflation Regimes? A Historical Analysis," Working Paper Series 1109, European Central Bank.

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