Dropping out of University of Salerno: a survival approach
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to analyse and model the interval of time between the first enrolment at University and the first occurrence of non-enrolment, so that the event of interest is the dropping out of University. The interest is focused on computing the probability of surviving at the University and analysing which personal, familiar and social characteristics may influence the non-completion of students’ academic carrier, using Survival Analysis techniques. The dataset analysed is collected from the Central Administrative Office of the University of Salerno, and includes all full-time students enrolled at the 2002-2003 academic year, followed for five years, until the 2006-2007 academic year. Those students can either complete their study and receive their degree or leave the university, that is the event of our interest. The estimation of the probability of surviving in University is made by the Kaplan-Meier estimator. Then, to test if there is a significant difference among the survival curves, Log-rank test is considered. Since it does not allow more than one explanatory variable to be taken into account, Cox Proportional Hazards model is used to analyse the interrelations between the covariates, and explored the influence of covariates on failure times. This study shows that there is a steep decline for students in Political Science and in Educational Studies, at the first year. Moreover, female students, students who attended "Licei" and those who completed their high school study with the highest mark (i.e. 110) have the highest probability of surviving at the University, i.e. the highest rate of taking the degree. In all these cases, it can be noted that there is a Faculty effect. These differences, tested by logrank test, are significant. Finally, Cox PH model for each Faculty confirms previous results.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Statistiche, Università degli Studi di Salerno in its series Working Papers with number 3_193.
Date of creation: Jan 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Working Papers, Gennaio 2008, pages 1-78
Dropout; Kaplan-Meier Estimator; Log-rank Test; Cox Proportional Hazards Model.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jeremy P. Smith & Robin A. Naylor, 2001. "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 389-405.
- Robst, John & Keil, Jack & Russo, Dean, 1998. "The effect of gender composition of faculty on student retention," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 429-439, October.
- Zvi Eckstein & Kenneth I. Wolpin, 1999. "Why Youths Drop Out of High School: The Impact of Preferences, Opportunities, and Abilities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1295-1340, November.
- Stephen L. DesJardins & Dennis A. Ahlburg & Brian P. McCall, .
"The Effects of Interrupted Enrollment on Graduation from College: Racial, Income, and Ability Differences,"
0505, Human Resources and Labor Studies, University of Minnesota (Twin Cities Campus).
- DesJardins, Stephen L. & Ahlburg, Dennis A. & McCall, Brian P., 2006. "The effects of interrupted enrollment on graduation from college: Racial, income, and ability differences," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 575-590, December.
- Wiji Arulampalam & Robin A. Naylor & Jeremy P. Smith, 2004. "A hazard model of the probability of medical school drop-out in the UK," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 167(1), pages 157-178.
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin & Smith, Jeremy, 2002.
"Effects of In-Class Variation and Student Rank on the Probability of Withdrawal: Cross-Section and Time-Series Analysis for UK University Students,"
IZA Discussion Papers
655, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Arulampalam, Wiji & Naylor, Robin A. & Smith, Jeremy P., 2005. "Effects of in-class variation and student rank on the probability of withdrawal: cross-section and time-series analysis for UK university students," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 251-262, June.
- Geraint Johnes & Robert McNabb, 2004. "Never Give up on the Good Times: Student Attrition in the UK," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 23-47, 02.
- Audrey Light & Wayne Strayer, 2000. "Determinants of College Completion: School Quality or Student Ability?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 299-332.
- DesJardins, S. L. & Ahlburg, D. A. & McCall, B. P., 1999. "An event history model of student departure," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 375-390, June.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Maria Rizzo).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.