Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics
AbstractPublic Finances worldwide have been severely hit by the 2008-2009 Great Recession, stimulating the debate on the consequences of growing fiscal imbalances. Building on Paesani et al. (2006), this paper focuses on the USA, Germany and Italy over the 1983-2009 period and studies the effects of fiscal shocks and government debt accumulation on long-term interest rates, both nationally and across borders. Based on a atheoretical framework, the empirical analysis disentangles permanent and transitory components of interest rates dynamics finding that sustained debt accumulation leads, at least temporarily, to higher long-term interest rates. The is particularly true for the Italian case. There is also evidence of significant cross-country linkages, mainly between Italy and the USA.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Universidade Portucalense, Centro de Investigação em Gestão e Economia (CIGE) in its series Working Papers with number 14/2011.
Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: 13 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
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Public debt; long-term interest rates; cointegration; common trends.;
Other versions of this item:
- L. Marattin & P. Paesani & S. Salotti, 2011. "Fiscal shocks, public debt, and long-term interest rate dynamics," Working Papers wp740, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
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