The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union
AbstractThe ongoing massive fiscal policy stimulus triggered increasing concerns on the potential impact on interest rate levels, as economic theory predicts. Particularly, the deterioration of some EMU countries’ fiscal positions has been putting at risk Eurozone’ financial stability. In this paper, we estimate a Panel VAR (PVAR) model on the EMU area employing annual data from 1970 to 2008 in order to assess the qualitative and quantitative impact of public debt on interest rates Our results show that prior to the introduction of the Euro an increase in public debt led to positive and significant effect on long-term nominal interest rates, with a stronger effect for high-debt countries. After the introduction of the single currency, the effect vanishes (in line with Bernoth 2004). We interpret this result as a confirmation of the crucial role of the monetary union in weakening the automatic risk-premium-based channel between debt shocks and returns on government bond.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna in its series Working Papers with number 695.
Date of creation: Feb 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Piazza Scaravilli, 2, and Strada Maggiore, 45, 40125 Bologna
Phone: +39 051 209 8019 and 2600
Fax: +39 051 209 8040 and 2664
Web page: http://www.dse.unibo.it
More information through EDIRC
Other versions of this item:
- Simone Salotti & Luigi Marattin, 2010. "The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union," Working Papers - Mathematical Economics 2010-04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-04-04 (Central Banking)
- NEP-EEC-2010-04-04 (European Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2010-04-04 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2010-04-04 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Riccardo Faini, 2006. "Fiscal policy and interest rates in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(47), pages 443-489, 07.
- Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007.
"Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
- Charles L. Evans & David Marshall, 2001. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Working Paper Series WP-01-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Miller, Stephen M. & Russek, Frank S., 1996. "Do federal deficits affect interest rates? Evidence from three econometric methods," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 403-428.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998.
Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers
1820, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government debt," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Mankiw, N, 1999. "Government Debt," Scholarly Articles 2643866, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Douglas W. Elmendorf & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1998. "Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 6470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2003.
"Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market,"
ZEI Working Papers
B 26-2003, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Bernoth, Kerstin & von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2004. "Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market," Working Paper Series 0369, European Central Bank.
- Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 1998.
"High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates,"
NBER Working Papers
5408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlo Ambrogio Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, . "High Yielders: the Spread on German Interest Rates," Working Papers 102, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Favero, Carlo A & Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 1996. "High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 1330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004.
"Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2004
20, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
- Nooman Rebei & Hafedh Bouakez, 2004. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 417, Econometric Society.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2003. "Why Does Private Consumption Rise After a Government Spending Shock?," Working Papers 03-43, Bank of Canada.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
- Lorenzo Codogno & Carlo Favero & Alessandro Missale, 2003. "Yield spreads on EMU government bonds," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 503-532, October.
- Linnemann, Ludger & Schabert, Andreas, 2004. "Can fiscal spending stimulate private consumption?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 173-179, February.
- Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001.
"A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables,"
NBER Working Papers
8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
- Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
- Thomas Laubach, 2003.
"New evidence on the interest rate effects of budget deficits and debt,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2003-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Thomas Laubach, 2009. "New Evidence on the Interest Rate Effects of Budget Deficits and Debt," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(4), pages 858-885, 06.
- Gerhard Reitschuler & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 2011-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
- Gabrisch, Hurbert & Orlowski, Lucjan & Pusch, Toralf, 2012.
"Sovereign Default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries,"
2012002, Sacred Heart University, John F. Welch College of Business.
- Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 41265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "The role of uncertainty in the euro crisis: A reconsideration of liquidity preference theory," Discussion Papers 31, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Luca Miselli).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.