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The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union

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  • L. Marattin
  • S. Salotti

Abstract

The ongoing massive fiscal policy stimulus triggered increasing concerns on the potential impact on interest rate levels, as economic theory predicts. Particularly, the deterioration of some EMU countries fiscal positions has been putting at risk Eurozone financial stability. In this paper, we estimate a Panel VAR (PVAR) model on the EMU area employing annual data from 1970 to 2008 in order to assess the qualitative and quantitative impact of public debt on interest rates Our results show that prior to the introduction of the Euro an increase in public debt led to positive and significant effect on long-term nominal interest rates, with a stronger effect for high-debt countries. After the introduction of the single currency, the effect vanishes (in line with Bernoth 2004). We interpret this result as a confirmation of the crucial role of the monetary union in weakening the automatic risk-premium-based channel between debt shocks and returns on government bond.

Suggested Citation

  • L. Marattin & S. Salotti, 2010. "The Euro-dividend: public debt and interest rates in the Monetary Union," Working Papers 695, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:695
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    Cited by:

    1. Ageliki Anagnostou & Ioannis Panteladis & Maria Tsiapa, 2015. "Disentangling different patterns of business cycle synchronicity in the EU regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 615-641, August.
    2. Gerhard Reitschuler & Rupert Sendlhofer, 2011. "Fiscal policy, trigger points and interest rates: Additional evidence from the U.S," Working Papers 2011-23, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    3. Gabrisch, Hubert & Orlowski, Lucjan T. & Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "Sovereign default Risk in the Euro-Periphery and the Euro-Candidate Countries," MPRA Paper 41265, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Ageliki Anagnostou & Stephanos Papadamou, 2016. "Regional asymmetries in monetary policy transmission: The case of the Greek regions," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(5), pages 795-815, August.
    5. Pusch, Toralf, 2012. "The role of uncertainty in the euro crisis: A reconsideration of liquidity preference theory," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 31, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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