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Long-term Interest Rates, Risk Premia and Unconventional Monetary Policy

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  • Callum Jones

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Mariano Kulish

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In a model where the risk premium on long-term debt is, in part, endogenously determined, we study two kinds of unconventional monetary policy: long-term nominal interest rates as operating instruments of monetary policy and announcements about the future path of the short-term rate. We find that both policies are consistent with unique equilibria, that long-term interest rate rules can perform better than conventional Taylor rules, and that, at the zero lower bound, announcements about the future path of the short-term rate can lower long-term interest rates through their impact on both expectations and the risk premium. With simulations, we show that long-term interest rate rules generate sensible dynamics both when in operation and when expected to be applied.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Reserve Bank of Australia in its series RBA Research Discussion Papers with number rdp2011-02.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
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Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2011-02

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Keywords: unconventional monetary policy; Taylor rule; risk premia; term structure;

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References

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  1. Mariano Kulish, 2005. "Should Monetary Policy use Long-term Rates?," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 635, Boston College Department of Economics.
  2. Joseph Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian Sack, 2010. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Staff Reports 441, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Jääskelä, Jarkko P. & Kulish, Mariano, 2010. "The butterfly effect of small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1295-1304, July.
  4. Clouse James & Henderson Dale & Orphanides Athanasios & Small David H. & Tinsley P.A., 2003. "Monetary Policy When the Nominal Short-Term Interest Rate is Zero," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-65, September.
  5. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
  6. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Adam Cagliarini & Mariano Kulish, 2013. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Predictable Structural Changes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(1), pages 328-336, March.
  8. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Bruce McGough & Glenn D. Rudebusch & John C. Williams, 2004. "Using a long-term interest rate as the monetary policy instrument," Working Paper Series 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
  11. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "If Exchange Rates are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy is Wrong," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 339-345, May.
  12. Bodenstein, Martin & Hebden, James & Nunes, Ricardo, 2012. "Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 135-149.
  13. Glenn Rudebusch & Tao Wu, 2004. "A macro-finance model of the term structure, monetary policy, and the economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  14. Martin Bodenstein & James Hebden & Ricardo Nunes, 2010. "Imperfect credibility and the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate," International Finance Discussion Papers 1001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  16. Sims, Christopher A, 2002. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 1-20, October.
  17. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.
  18. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
  19. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Yüksel, Ebru & Metin-Ozcan, Kivilcim & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2013. "A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 122-134.
  2. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields," Borradores de Economia 822, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Alexander Guarín & José Fernando Moreno & Hernando Vargas, 2014. "An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between US and Colombian Long-Term Sovereign Bond Yields?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 011311, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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