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Analysis of the dynamic relation between the currency rates and the interest rates from Romania and euro area before and during the financial crisis

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  • Stefanescu, Razvan
  • Dumitriu, Ramona
  • Nistor, Costel

Abstract

This paper examines the changes induced by the actual financial crisis in the dynamic relation between the currency rates and the differentials of the interest rates from Romania and euro area. In the framework of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity hypothesis we apply the Vector Autoregressive methodology for daily values of the currency rates and the interest rates during the crisis. We compare the results obtained with a similar analysis for a period of time before the crisis began and we find significant differences.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 41744.

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Date of creation: 07 Sep 2009
Date of revision: 04 Mar 2010
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:41744

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Keywords: Uncovered Interest Rates Parity; Vector Autoregressive Model; Financial Crisis; Romanian Foreign Exchange Market;

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  1. Markku Lanne & Helmut Lutkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2003. "Test Procedures for Unit Roots in Time Series with Level Shifts at Unknown Time," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(1), pages 91-115, February.
  2. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521460477, October.
  3. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey, 1997. "Foreign Speculators and Emerging Equity Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 79, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  5. Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2000. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Level Shift at Unknown Time," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0342, Econometric Society.
  6. Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min & Xing, Yuhang, 2007. "Uncovered interest rate parity and the term structure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1038-1069, October.
  7. Isard,Peter, 1995. "Exchange Rate Economics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521466004, October.
  8. Bennett T. McCallum, 1992. "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship," NBER Working Papers 4113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 1999. "A re-examination of the exchange rate-interest differential relationship: evidence from Germany and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 319-336, February.
  10. Froot, Kenneth A. & Ito, Takatoshi, 1989. "On the consistency of short-run and long-run exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 487-510, December.
  11. Mark P. Taylor & Ronald MacDonald, 1991. "Exchange Rate Economics: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 91/62, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Marcello D'Amato & Barbara Pistoresi, 2001. "Interest rate spreads between Italy and Germany: 1995-1997," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 603-612.
  13. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
  14. Shinji Takagi, 1991. "Exchange Rate Expectations: A Survey of Survey Studies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(1), pages 156-183, March.
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