Using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate match importance: the case of English Premier League
AbstractThis paper presents a new method of calculating match importance (a common variable in sports attendance demand studies) using Monte Carlo simulation. Using betting odds and actual results of 12 seasons of English Premier League, it is shown that the presented method is based on realistic predictions of match results and season outcomes. The Monte Carlo method provides results closest to Jennett’s approach; however, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 40998.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
sports attendance; match importance; seasonal uncertainty; Monte Carlo;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-09-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2012-09-09 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-SPO-2012-09-09 (Sports & Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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0048, University of Zurich, Institute for Strategy and Business Economics (ISU), revised 2008.
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