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Global Shocks and the Japanese Economy:Structural Changes in the 1990s

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  • Jun-ichi Shinkai

    (Specially Appointed Researcher, Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP))

  • Akira Kohsaka

    (Professor, Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP))

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    Abstract

    This paper analyzes how those global shocks as foreign business cycles and exchange rate realignments affect the Japanese economy and whether there are structural changes in the transmission mechanism of these shocks in the recent period by using a VAR model. This paper finds that, since the 1990s the impact of exchange rate changes on the Japanese economy has become smaller and/or insignificant. But the spillover effect of business cycles in U.S. and Europe turns out to have become larger and that from East Asia, once being small and insignificant, become large and significant in the 2000s. To sum up, the Japanese economy has appeared to re-couple with the world and regional business cycles in the recent period.

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    File URL: http://www.osipp.osaka-u.ac.jp/archives/DP/2009/DP2009E008.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University in its series OSIPP Discussion Paper with number 09E008.

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    Length: 26 pages
    Date of creation: Dec 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:osp:wpaper:09e008

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    Related research

    Keywords: global shocks; de-coupling; expenditure switching;

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    1. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    2. Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," Working Papers 862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    3. Baxter, Marianne & Kouparitsas, Michael A., 2005. "Determinants of business cycle comovement: a robust analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 113-157, January.
    4. Jianhuai Shi, 2006. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?," NBER Working Papers 12551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344.
    6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08.
    7. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1988. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
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