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Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?

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  • Jianhuai Shi
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    Abstract

    The Chinese economy has been in a state of external and internal imbalances for some years, which has something to do with the undervaluation of renminbi (RMB). But the Chinese Government hesitates to allow RMB to appreciate because of the worry that RMB appreciations are contractionary thus have negative impact on China's economic growth and employment. The purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the effects of RMB real exchange rate on China's output. The econometric results of the paper show that (1) even after source of spurious correlation is controlled for, RMB appreciation has led to a decline in China's output, suggesting that RMB appreciations are contractionary, and that (2) once the international finance linkage of Chinese economy is accounted for, the effect of RMB real exchange rate shocks on China's output and the power of the shocks in explaining the change of China's output are diminished. The paper gives some possible explanations to those findings, and points out that the findings do not necessarily imply that China should continue maintaining the undervaluation of RMB.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12551.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12551.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2006
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    Publication status: published as Jianhuai, Shi. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?" Jingji Yanjiu/Economic Research Journal 42, 1 (January 2007): 41-55.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12551

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    1. Krugman, Paul & Taylor, Lance, 1978. "Contractionary effects of devaluation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 445-456, August.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 11508, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. VJeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 149-192, September.
    4. Gylfason, Thorvaldur & Radetzki, Marian, 1991. "Does Devaluation Make Sense in the Least Developed Countries?," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(1), pages 1-25, October.
    5. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate in China," Working Papers 2005-01, CEPII research center.
    6. Jeffrey Frankel, 2006. "On the Yuan: The Choice between Adjustment under a Fixed Exchange Rate and Adjustment under a Flexible Rate," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 246-275, June.
    7. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Alexander W. Hoffmaister, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Soyoung Kim & Yoonbai Kim, 2012. "The RMB Debate: Empirical Analysis on the Effects of Exchange Rate Shocks in China and Japan," Working Papers 132012, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    2. Straub, Roland & Thimann, Christian, 2010. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 425-444, October.
    3. You, Kefei & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2012. "Structural breaks and the equilibrium real effective exchange rate of China: A NATREX approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1146-1163.
    4. Jun-ichi Shinkai & Akira Kohsaka, 2009. "Global Shocks and the Japanese Economy:Structural Changes in the 1990s," OSIPP Discussion Paper 09E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    5. Pablo Selaya & Rainer Thiele, 2008. "Aid and Sectoral Labour Productivity," Kiel Working Papers 1468, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

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