Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China

Contents:

Author Info

  • Straub, Roland
  • Thimann, Christian

Abstract

This paper sheds new light on the external and domestic dimension of China's exchange rate policy. It presents an open-economy model to analyse the macroeconomic adjustment process in China under both flexible and fixed exchange rate regimes. The model-based results indicate that persistent current account surpluses in China cannot be rationalized, under general circumstances, by the occurrence of permanent technology or labour supply shocks. As a result, to understand the macroeconomic adjustment process in China it is necessary to mimic the effects of potential inefficiencies, which induce the subdued response of domestic absorption to permanent income shocks, thereby causing the observed positive unconditional correlation of the trade balance and output. The paper argues that these inefficiencies can be potentially seen as a by-product of the fixed exchange rate regime, and can be approximated by a stochastic tax on domestic consumption or a time-varying transaction cost technology related to money holdings. Our results indicate that a fixed exchange rate regime with financial market distortions, as defined above, might induce negative effects on GDP growth in the medium term compared with a more flexible exchange rate regime.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6W53-4YX7KDW-1/2/87a68722e071a5833e5f6755cea27677
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Asian Economics.

Volume (Year): 21 (2010)
Issue (Month): 5 (October)
Pages: 425-444

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:5:p:425-444

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco

Related research

Keywords: DSGE modelling China Current account;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
  2. Mehrotra, Aaron, 2006. "Demand for money in transition: Evidence from China's disinflation," BOFIT Discussion Papers 10/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, 03.
  4. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada.
  5. Bayoumi, Tamim & Laxton, Doug & Pesenti, Paolo, 2004. "Benefits and Spillovers of Greater Competition in Europe: A Macroeconomic Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4481, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2001. "Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy Under Sticky Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 2942, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Günter Coenen & Roland Straub, 2005. "Does Government Spending Crowd In Private Consumption? Theory and Empirical Evidence for the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 05/159, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: a new open economy model for policy analysis," International Finance Discussion Papers 835, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Wang, Jiao & Ji, Andy G., 2006. "Exchange rate sensitivity of China’s bilateral trade flows," BOFIT Discussion Papers 19/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  10. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  11. Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Koivu, Tuuli, 2007. "Can the Chinese trade surplus be reduced through exchange rate policy?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2007, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  12. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Working Paper Series WP-01-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  13. Coenen, Günter & McAdam, Peter & Straub, Roland, 2008. "Tax reform and labour-market performance in the euro area: A simulation-based analysis using the New Area-Wide Model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2543-2583, August.
  14. Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2007. "China and India in International Trade: from Laggards to Leaders?," Working Papers 2007-19, CEPII research center.
  15. Michael B. Devereux & Hans Genberg, 2006. "Currency Appreciation and Current Account Adjustment," Working Papers 172006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  16. Gary H. Jefferson & Albert G. Z. Hu & Jian Su, 2006. "The Sources and Sustainability of China's Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(2), pages 1-60.
  17. Nouriel Roubini, 2007. "Why China Should Abandon Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 71-89, 03.
  18. Lamin Leigh & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates: The Case of China," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Huayu Sun & Yue Ma, 2005. "Balance of Payments Surplus and Renminbi Revaluation Pressure," Working Papers 032005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  20. Kim Song Tan & Hoe Ee Khor, 2006. "China's Changing Economic Structure and Implications for Regional Patterns of Trade, Production and Integration," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(6), pages 1-19.
  21. Jianhuai Shi, 2006. "Are Currency Appreciations Contractionary in China?," NBER Working Papers 12551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2006. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," IMF Working Papers 06/111, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  24. Xuxin Yu, 2007. "The Pattern of Exchange Rate Effects on Chinese Prices, 1980-2002," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 683-699, 09.
  25. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2006. "Rebalancing Growth in China: A Three-Handed Approach," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 14(4), pages 1-20.
  26. Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2007. "Do China's capital controls still bind? Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation," BIS Working Papers 233, Bank for International Settlements.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Douglas Hostland & Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 13/256, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Dorrucci, Ettore & Pula, Gabor & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2013. "China's economic growth and rebalancing," Occasional Paper Series 142, European Central Bank.
  3. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2011. "Chinese reserves accumulation and US monetary policy: Will China go on buying US financial assets?," Department of Economics Working Papers 1105, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  4. Bonatti, Luigi & Fracasso, Andrea, 2013. "Hoarding of international reserves in China: Mercantilism, domestic consumption and US monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 1044-1078.
  5. Yavuz Arslan & Mustafa Kilinc & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2011. "Global Imbalances, Current Account Rebalancing and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Papers 1127, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:21:y:2010:i:5:p:425-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.